USDCAD still up after a cup and handle
Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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On July 20 I posted an idea about the USDCAD market and I said that the market is going to be Bullish for a while since we have a cup and handle pattern on the chart and today we can see the market result. The market has moved from 1.24322 to 1.28309 almost 4% in the last month alone.
Scenarios for the market movement :
Scenario 1 :
The market price right now is trading around 1.26253 after a small drop from 1.26845 in the last 2 days, The Bulls are trying to stay in control as we see from the price fluctuation, and they might be ready to push back up to the first resistance level at 1.26440 and if they breakout it will show the Bears that the Bulls still have the power to push the price back up, Which could lead to the price going back to the 1.28309 level if the Buyers well able to break all of the resistance.
Scenario 2 :
The Bears were trying to drive the price back down in the last 2 weeks, but the support line at 1.24240 is still holding strong, In the next few days if the Bears were able to gain some control over the market we could see the market price drop near the support zone between 1.2584 - 1.2551, where the Battle over control will happen between the Bears and Bulls and the winner will determine the market direction for the next week.
Technical indicators show:
1) The market is above the 5 20 50 100 200 MA and below the 10 MA, above the 5 10 20 50 100 EMA, and below the 200 EMA ( so it is looking Bullish for now )
2) The MACD is above the 0 line showing that the market is in a Bullish state, with a negative crossover between the MACD line and the Signal line (the negative crossover could indicate a small drop in price but the major trend is still Bullish)
3) The ADX is at 25.70 showing that the market is trending, with a positive crossover between DI+ and DI-
Daily Support & Resistance points :
Support/Resistance
1) 1.25848 1) 1.26440
2) 1.25515 2) 1.26818
3) 1.24884 3) 1.27479
Fundamental point of view :
USD/CAD continues to trade near the resistance level at 1.2625 while the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.
The U.S. Dollar Index is currently trying to settle below the support level at the 20 EMA at 92.45. In case the U.S. Dollar Index declines below this level, it will move towards the support at 92.30 which will be bearish for USD/CAD.
Today, U.S. released ADP Employment Change report which indicated that private businesses hired 374,000 workers in August compared to analyst consensus of 613,000. The weak report put some pressure on the U.S. dollar, but many traders will wait for the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report which will be released on Friday before making final conclusions.
Foreign exchange market traders also had a chance to take a look at the final reading of U.S. Manufacturing PMI report. The report showed that Manufacturing PMI declined from 63.4 in July to 61.1 in August compared to analyst consensus of 61.2. In Canada, Manufacturing PMI increased from 56.2 in July to 57.2 in August while analysts expected that it would decline to 54. According to FXempire.
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from fundamental analysts and news for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
_________________________________Make sure to Like and Follow if you like the idea_________________________________
On July 20 I posted an idea about the USDCAD market and I said that the market is going to be Bullish for a while since we have a cup and handle pattern on the chart and today we can see the market result. The market has moved from 1.24322 to 1.28309 almost 4% in the last month alone.
Scenarios for the market movement :
Scenario 1 :
The market price right now is trading around 1.26253 after a small drop from 1.26845 in the last 2 days, The Bulls are trying to stay in control as we see from the price fluctuation, and they might be ready to push back up to the first resistance level at 1.26440 and if they breakout it will show the Bears that the Bulls still have the power to push the price back up, Which could lead to the price going back to the 1.28309 level if the Buyers well able to break all of the resistance.
Scenario 2 :
The Bears were trying to drive the price back down in the last 2 weeks, but the support line at 1.24240 is still holding strong, In the next few days if the Bears were able to gain some control over the market we could see the market price drop near the support zone between 1.2584 - 1.2551, where the Battle over control will happen between the Bears and Bulls and the winner will determine the market direction for the next week.
Technical indicators show:
1) The market is above the 5 20 50 100 200 MA and below the 10 MA, above the 5 10 20 50 100 EMA, and below the 200 EMA ( so it is looking Bullish for now )
2) The MACD is above the 0 line showing that the market is in a Bullish state, with a negative crossover between the MACD line and the Signal line (the negative crossover could indicate a small drop in price but the major trend is still Bullish)
3) The ADX is at 25.70 showing that the market is trending, with a positive crossover between DI+ and DI-
Daily Support & Resistance points :
Support/Resistance
1) 1.25848 1) 1.26440
2) 1.25515 2) 1.26818
3) 1.24884 3) 1.27479
Fundamental point of view :
USD/CAD continues to trade near the resistance level at 1.2625 while the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.
The U.S. Dollar Index is currently trying to settle below the support level at the 20 EMA at 92.45. In case the U.S. Dollar Index declines below this level, it will move towards the support at 92.30 which will be bearish for USD/CAD.
Today, U.S. released ADP Employment Change report which indicated that private businesses hired 374,000 workers in August compared to analyst consensus of 613,000. The weak report put some pressure on the U.S. dollar, but many traders will wait for the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report which will be released on Friday before making final conclusions.
Foreign exchange market traders also had a chance to take a look at the final reading of U.S. Manufacturing PMI report. The report showed that Manufacturing PMI declined from 63.4 in July to 61.1 in August compared to analyst consensus of 61.2. In Canada, Manufacturing PMI increased from 56.2 in July to 57.2 in August while analysts expected that it would decline to 54. According to FXempire.
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from fundamental analysts and news for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!