skyisthelimit1
Short

Short on USD/CAD. Overbought.

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Trade active at 1.31 (short USD/CAD )
Looking to add more shorts above 1.31 this week.

Hoping for USD/CAD to go up tomorrow (FOMC/rate decision), and I will add more shorts between 1.31-1.32. Can possibly go higher, but I doubt it, low probability.
And then hoping for trend to start reversal on Friday (Canadian CPI ) and into the next week, and week after.

Trade time: 1-2 weeks.

Personally, I will put stops at 1.33 or 1.33500, depends what my average short is.

1st target: 1.29500
2nd target 1.27500

If things look like they won't go below 1.29500, I will close all positions there. Have to manage risk and be flexible. Markets are brutal as always.

Don't put more than you can risk...if you want to get in the trade now, you can, but use small positions until you can get good shorts above 1.31

I'm bullish on OIL long-term, which will definitely help Canadian dollar . And bearish on USD in short-term.
And technical indicators are all overbought, so very good probability of a reversal, whether it's shallow or a deeper.

Overall, low risk trade.


Note: I am also short on GBP/CAD at 1.83700, feel free to short that pair as well. Although it's down to 1.83000 currently and personally I wouldn't add a new short position unless it goes back up to 1.83700/1.84, but if it does, it's a good pair to short now as well.

Note 2: If you want to short GBP/CAD , split your margin between USD/CAD & GBP/CAD . Pick 1 pair to short.If you want to short both pairs, half your position in each.
Mar 21
Comment: 1st target hit. Half position closed.
Apr 04
Order cancelled: Closed other half of trade now at 1.27750 just above 2nd target. Also closed GBP/CAD.
I like your risk management ... similar idea to mine. 1/2 leverage on gbpcad and usdcad.
I might close my positions before the FOMC and reopen them at 1.3150
Reply
skyisthelimit1 hussein.alaryan
@hussein.alaryan,

Let's see where FOMC anticipation takes us.

CME pricing in hike tomorrow at 94.4%, Goldmach Sachs 95% chance of hike. If these are to be trusted at all (my experience is that it's pretty accurate), then the market has already priced in USD strength.
So even if USD is bullish, there isn't much room for it to go up(not in USD/CAD pair anyways). And when CAD gets stronger, it will overwhelm USD easily and we should see a good reversal.

At least that's what I think will happen and yeah I will add more shorts around 1.3150 too. Hoping the FOMC announcement spikes it to that level, so we can short it.

All the best brother :)
Reply
hussein.alaryan skyisthelimit1
@skyisthelimit1, precisely .. the fed dot plot will be the effective key tomorrow as if there’s any change of the hikes for this year that’s will give Usd more strength. Otherwise similar plans
Thank you !
Reply
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