The general risk-on mood and strengthening dollar overnight have pushed the USDCAD to go higher than 38% fib retracement and to test the 50 SMA. Release of US data will shine light on the next direction of the dollar. However, the forecasts expect the retail sales to increase by 0.2%, but core retail sales to fall by 0.3% since April. Core sales exclude the automobile industry (20% of retail sales) due to their volatility. Positive number would indicate an increase in consumer spending, showing a healthy economy and strengthen the dollar. In that case a break through the 50 SMA could provide a first buy signal. Alternatively, negative data could trigger the continuation of the sell-off we had last week. CAD, which is drive also by oil prices, had a strong run past several weeks and rising oil prices are helping it as well. With RSI being right on the 50, it is a signal of indecision and market waiting for fresh data.