Weekly closing price: 1.2934
Weekly opening price: 1.2943
Weekly view: Although the Loonie ranged around 250 pips last week, the market only managed to gain 28 pips by the close. During trade, however, price bounced from a broken resistance-turned support at 1.2833, consequently forming an indecision candle with a slight edge seen going to the bulls. Further gains from here could, as far as we can see, force price up to resistance coming in at 1.3381. What is more, oil’s weekly chart shows price is currently trading from supply at 48.33-44.54 which may push the Canadian dollar lower and the U.S. dollar higher.
Daily view: Moving down to the , we can see that during Thursday’s session last week price came within twenty pips of connecting with daily demand at 1.2653-1.2753. This, as you’ll see by looking at the on oil , coincided beautifully with oil hitting daily supply at 48.33-46.53 (positioned within the above said weekly supply on oil ) which is where the black gold remained during Thursday and Friday’s trade. This – coupled with weekly structure on the USD/CAD , may put pressure on any offers seen at the daily resistance line drawn from 1.2970. A close above this line will likely push prices up to daily supply at 1.3218-1.3086.
H4 view: A quick recap of Friday’s trade on the H4 shows that the pair ended the day taking out the 1.29 handle and reaching highs of 1.2957. Now, to simplify our analysis, we have logged our thoughts in bullet-point form:
• Weekly buyers appear in good shape especially considering that oil now also trades at weekly supply (see above).
• Daily action is currently nibbling at resistance, but we feel based on the weekly structure and price also lurking within daily supply on oil , this line will likely cave in (see above).
• Now, from the H4 (based on the points above) we feel a small pullback to 1.29 will be seen which we expect to hold as support. Aggressive traders may look to buy from here as this could form the C-leg to a H4 pattern which completes around the 1.3082 region.
• In the event that 1.29 holds, it’s likely only a bounce will be seen at 1.30 should price reach this high due to daily supply sitting above at 1.3218-1.3086.
• From a close above 1.30, we’d be looking to sell between 1.31 and the H4 Quasimodo resistance at 1.3062 which, as you can see, incorporates the H4 completion point and is bolstered by daily supply just mentioned above.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: 1.2900 region Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).
• Sells: 1.3100/1.3062 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).