FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
545 13 12
9 months ago
For my previous post and short term trading strategy see below:

USDCAD long


The level which gives support at the moment has been determined a while ago based on structure in the past. Now I like to see a reversal out of this zone to support my bigger picture analysis. The leg lower has the characteristic of an impulsive wave A and should therefore present another sell opportunity once wave B is complete. However we have to keep in mind that several corrective patterns are possible. Longer term I expect a test of at least 1.270

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9 months ago
Trade active:
snapshot
9 months ago
Trade active: We saw another extension lower for the USDCAD and I expect a move higher soon. We saw the first attempt to move higher. What I'm looking for in terms of confirmation is an impulse higher followed by a consolidation of lesser degree. An impulse should be strong and subdivided in 5 inner waves. The simplest approach to spot an impulse is to focus on the angle of the wave and whether or not it shows many overlaps. For those who are not sure about it have a look at my previous posts where I wrote impulse/consolidation in the chart, you will probably see it because a chart shows more than a thousand words when it comes to trading.

snapshot
9 months ago
Comment: I was looking for a 3 wave pattern lower towards the high of 2009 in the 1.30 zone. However we might see this current bearish move targeting that zone. The plan is still the same, sell after minor consolidations towards this zone or in terms of a reversal wait for an impulse of lesser degree and buy after a consolidation.

updates will follow.

snapshot
9 months ago
Comment: I received several question about the CAD pairs. It is extended and many indicators will show a likely reversal ahead. However I use an indicator as indication and nothing more, more often than not I don't use any indicator at all because the key data is in the chart itself. But this is dependent on how you trade of course. Nevertheless, we shouldn't be buying too soon. Nothing says the USDCAD can't turn bullish but structure and market dynamic tells me that we most likely need to test the high of 2009 first before this pair will be able to make a significant correction higher. If t turns bullish before we test that level, I simply wait for the consolidation and continuation so I won't get caught by another extension lower.

snapshot
9 months ago
Comment: Watch for a consolidation and buy continuation towards 1.345. However if we see a reversal here we should be looking for a bearish impulse and sell after the consolidation. I still expect a test of the high of 2009 and a move towards 1.345 will not invalidate that scenario.

snapshot

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SamehAnwer
9 months ago
Thanks, you are a great analyst , but please could you explain what the characteristics of the impulse you mentioned in the post , in detail , please ?
Reply
SamehAnwer
9 months ago
I have read some posts for you, and they was great . it seems that you have a complete trading strategy , have you written a book explaining this strategy or do you have a page or website to explain that for the audience ?
Thanks in advance .
Reply
TimStuyts SamehAnwer
9 months ago
Hello Sameh, I'm glad you appreciate my posts. My website is under construction and should be launched soon. I will post that on tradingview as well. I will try to explain an impulse in my next post where I will use it as an example.
Reply
wonkytonkydonky
9 months ago
ive been waiting and waiting and waiting for that B wave .. so i can enter the C :)
Reply
Qasimshahzadgt
9 months ago
hi stuytstim how are you. dear now usdcad will go up or more will go down. ??
Reply
TimStuyts Qasimshahzadgt
9 months ago
I like to see a move up (corrective wave for a possible wave B). Then sell again. That will be my bias so if it goes down from here I have to re-evaluate but for now selling out of these levels is not what I'm looking for.
Reply
newbie2016
9 months ago
bro.. i think usdcad will fill its gap sooner or later.. and gap is close to 1.3345.. its a very minor gap of almost 3 to 5 pips.. that usdcad left last time before breaking 1.355 after weekend open.. we saw now usdjpy also covered its gap of 112.55.. so i think usdcad also to cover gap and then i see some consolidation and ucad towards 1.40... lets see.. so far i am long as well..
Reply
TimStuyts newbie2016
9 months ago
Thanks for your input. However I'm not sure what gap you referring to, could you share a screenshot because could be the data-feed of your broker. None of my brokers show a gap or I'm completely missing it. In terms of trading gaps, I agree they often will be closed fast in forex but not always (can take a while) and I don't use that as a guideline or strategy. Both USDJPY and USDCAD are showing a clear structure and I expect more downside in terms of bigger picture, although the drivers differ for each pair and I never use correlation besides analyzing fundamentals because it is alway's after the fact and says nothing about structure.
Reply
newbie2016 TimStuyts
9 months ago
I never thought to have screenshot of that gap... it was very minor and regarding brokers.. i use different brokers and at the time all were showing unfilled.. but like i said it was a minor gap... as you can see on daily chart the doji candles close to 1.334.. before moving upside.. so gap was close to it.. after weekend open and later in european session ucad taken out 1.355 resistance.. i personally was bullish at that time as well on ucad.. for now i think we will see move again towards 1.334 and i dont think 1.33 to crack easily..
Reply
TimStuyts newbie2016
9 months ago
By the way I appreciate your respons, it is a good way to elaborate on how I look at the market and compare different views (or confluence). Good trading to you!
+1 Reply
glaazie PRO
9 months ago
USDCAD


think it is forming an wedge and i also expecting it to go near the montly trendline before it wil go up

i also counted 5 waves so a break is also possible

thank for your analyses Tim your great in what you are doing !!
+1 Reply
TimStuyts glaazie
9 months ago
Very nice! Thank you
Reply
cmc TimStuyts
9 months ago
hello, nice analyses. I have the same opinion.
its a correction ABC, but now we are in A
+1 Reply
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