The catalyst I'm looking at for USD/CAD taking a short-term break was last Friday's +50k gain in jobs. Price failed to make a new cycle high, and although the uptrend isn't over, caution is warranted. Daily studies show clear divergence with price and price looks to be rolling over as well. Monday (today) saw a close under 1.0280, which pointed to a retest of the lower end of the recent range. We got as low as 1.0252 given(Reuters rate) and the high was paid at 1.0294 (Reuters), where intraday specs capped gains. Buyers seen 1.0240 and then good size by 1.0200 (bunch of small bids up to 1.0230 as well). I wouldn't expect a quick plunge lower as corp. bids will keep the pair supported on dips. That said, look for funds to steadily trade offered for the coming week or so. Fade rallies and buy intraday dips into 1.0200/10 on the first attempt there, bailing out at 1.0230/40, where one can reload shorts.
Comments
Charles
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Took small profits after the pair reached back to 1.0295.Buyers around 1.0240/50 have proven to be quite resilient. Will post a new follow trade/suggestion shortly.
Charles
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Fading 1.0280 looks the play with a stop somewhere above 1.0300 if you use stops... I don't... If you miss that entry, look for a break of 1.0240 and fade a pullback to there after the initial break out.