USDCAD - Daily HA sell signal, validated by 4H Kumo breakout

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
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It took some time, but finally it looks like we have a valid counter trend sell signal.

- Yesterday HA candle showe undecision and possible turndown
- Today HA candle is bearish with no upper wick
- haDelta/SMA3 bearish , Oscillator turned bearish too

- there was some hesitation in the Kumo, with a slight retest to 100 WMA today in form of an undecided HA candle. Recent candle gave the push, bearsih break below Kum, with haDelta confirming the already bearish DMI.
- Tenkan/Kijun medium strong bearish cross, Chikou medium strong bearish cross below Price candles. If chikou breaks below Kumo, that will be further confirmation for bearish extension.

Sell and hold shorts. Tgts are 1,2260 and 1,2100. Stop above 1,2610 or 1,2640 (according to your own risk management principals)
How do you think about the probability of this trade? I agree that the indicators are looking quite nice but on H4 there are some short term support areas (granted those were while price was in kumo and now we are out) and a Chikou bounce from kumo bottom is in the cards too.