Kumowizard
Short

Can be a possible sell to trade NFP+OPEC combo

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
216 2 7
Right now this pair is so neutral, that its volatility is one of the lowest (extremely low actually) in FX space.

We have US NFP today and also OPEC decision, which can move both USD and WTI.

It is time to setup a stop sell entry for USDCAD             , who knows, maybe we'll have a negative NFP ( bearish USD) and a positive OPEC decision (production cut -> bullish Oil             )

Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is bullish biased but momentum has been lost since 23/Nov spike above 1,34. Tenkan, kijun and Kumo components all point flat (averages has not really been changing)
- Heikin-Ashi also shows undecision: choppy candle pattern with some small red, small green candles and dojis included. haDelta/SMA3 stuck at zero -> no direction

4H:
- Ichimoku is absolutely neutral, impossible to read. price is exactly at the thin Kumo and Kijun Sen.
- Heikin-Ashi right now shows exactly same undecision as on daily timeframe .
- lower break level is ard             1,3315. Below that space would open to an initial quick dip to 1,3150-1,3200

From current level anything is possible, but if something can not go up for so long, that will probably come down. Anyway "what goes up, must come down!".

Strategy: Set up a stop sell below 4H Kumo!
Alternative trade idea: since volatility is extremely low, buy either a put spread on USDCAD             FX, or a call spread on CDH6 ( CME ) futures . I do it on futures contracts: Feb/16 +0,7550/-0,7750 Call spread
Nice. very nice.
Reply
it will be, if it breaks down. Do you remember my Salt'N'Pepa post about Goldman and EURUSD? Look what have the idiot mkt caused to itself. Extreme short squeeze. Same can happen on Gold, Silver, Corn and Wheat, especially in case OPEC finally decides to cut production which will trigger WTI short squeeze, and that can be a driver for a general commodity correction.

In that case commodity ccys will start to perform a bit better.

So it may be a good one. We'll see
Reply
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