CLOSED TRADE: USDCAD: BUY@1.28880 Aaaaarrghhhh! (-20 pips)

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
2374 8 20
I don't know which one I am more frustrated with: losing -20 pips or having to post another chart less than 30 minute after I posted a trade! Oh, well. It was a shot.

But looking back on it, I learned something I missed. As I say, every losing trade will get me closer to that winning trade as long as I learn something from losing. And here is what I learned. This can also serve as a lesson on how I ALWAYS go back and break down my losses. This is an essential part of the "process" of getting to a winning trade.

I said if prices dropped past the .382 level, it will most likely head down to that MAJOR SR Structure I have marked below. Take a look at that level on the DAILY CHART . To the left of the chart, I've circled where the MAJOR SR Structure stems from. This level is going to come into play. Like a magnet, prices are being drawn to it:

So now going back to my previous posts and seeing what I might've missed or did wrong, one thing I can see is that where before I had a Gartley pattern labeled (see the chart below), that should've been a crab: After correcting this error, you can now see the crab completes almost RIGHT AT the MAJOR SR Structure! How'd I miss that before??? (Yes, I'm slapping myself on the side of my head right now!)

And also, before, I ignored the most recent leg up in pulling my retracement levels and instead went all the way to the beginning to the end. Look at the DAILY chart above and you will now see that I pulled the fibs from the last uptrend leg up and that the 50% fib now rests almost EXACTLY on the MAJOR SR Structure.

What I also missed that you now see corrected in the MAIN chart above is that I failed to see that the wave count for the wave (c) down was incomplete. There wasn't 5 waves down yet. How'd I miss that as well, I don't know. Maybe I'm posting too much!

So in CONCLUSION, I made some stupid errors here that cost me -38 pips on 2 losses that really, I shouldn't have taken.

Lesson learned. And no, I am not taking any SHORT trade here. I'll wait until prices get there and be looking for a LONG entry.
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I've already learned a lot from you, it's always good analysis whether win or not. thank for sharing.
You're welcome!
NorellBrown EverythingForex
Great work ! i started my long position last night in some good profit right now
Sound analyst and great honesty. In a market where everyone focuses on their wins only you're always open about your wins and losses. Don't worry you'll get that 20 pips back easy! You always do bro! :)
EverythingForex DimiAverilla
Losses are part and parcel of trading. Failure only leads to success if you learn from it. No doubt that I'll recover the losses. Thanks, bro!
+1 Reply
Oops went down too s/r area @ 1.2834 back up again
Looking good
you do a great job by sharing your analysis! that's enough for a lot of us I guess, thumbs up! Please note that this pair is not on the driver seat ,oil is driving this car. So the best approach is to analyze oil 1st then jump into USDCAD, and you will nail it all the time ( till it lasts i guess). You do a great jot and you have a lot of "bawlz" IMHO to trade only based on your patterns, a bit of fundamentals always helps,but that's just me. Keep it up!
Thanks for the praise. Yes, USDCAD is a commodity-based currency. But you must remember, oil is not the only thing that drives it. They are highly correlated, yes. But they also are not 100% correlated. There are many other factors that go into what moves the loonie. I don't post on oil here as I limit myself to only posting about the majors on TV but yes, I do also follow oil (WTI, USO, Brent) but if you have been following my posts, you also know that my trading style is TA. And I am not a pure pattern trader nor do I base my trades simply on patterns although patterns are an integral part of my strategy. Which I have been using to great success over years of trading.

I never want to get into the argument of TA vs FA because it is pointless and un-winnable for either side. For me, although I do follow the news and stay on top of world and economic developments, I do not take or make trades based on FA.
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