chartwatchers
Long

USDCAD - Dollar hidden strength

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
500 8 22
7 months ago
This is an interesting chart...
CAD is rallying since January. Even it was able to rally ( USDCAD             pair was falling) when the dollar had some pullbacks from the middle of February till the end of February.(green)
But now I see internal weakness. Price couldn't tag the lower trendline for weeks now. Though the dollar was falling in April USDCAD             was not able to fall and tag the trendline (RED).

SO I think as now the dollar starts a real strong rally for a few weeks USDCAD             will not be able to stay in this channel so it's going to break out soon - maybe next week.

Also notice the the divergence between MACD and the price (purple) and MACD wants to cross over

7 months ago
Comment: Nice reversal !
Sonic_scheme
7 months ago
is it safe to say usdcad and oil have an inverse relationship in price action?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Sonic_scheme
7 months ago
I dont see that. Oil is coming out of a multi year low and breaking its bear market. I posted few weeks ago that the dollar has no effect on it. Usdcad depends on the dollar a lot. And now the CAD seems to be weak and the dollar is getting stronger.
Reply
gcplau chartwatchers
7 months ago
On one hand, I agree that US's economy has significant impact to any dollar-pair and CAD is no exception; but if you say Crude Oil has not much impact on USDCAD that I don't quite agree. Two points : #1 if you compare USDCAD with DXY, you'll see dollar moved in 10% range last year while USDCAD has 20%; further if you count the oil up % from bottom in early 2016 til now, CAD does echo it's rise, but only in about 1/3 of the %. I do agree DXY has obvious strengthening and PA also shows dollar continue stengthen based on it's weekly chart. Further, politically the Crude Oil is bound to fall and at best a range testing of no more than 10% and IMHO it can't rise beyond US50. Adding all these together, I do agree the USDCAD to bounce, TP1 128.50, TP2 132.50 for a 2 months term or less. Technically it has at least 5 confluences to suggest bounce near 1.25~1.26.
+2 Reply
nbn007 PRO
7 months ago
Oil is barely crolling.
needs a correction.

USD/RUB is the same story.
Reply
king24253
7 months ago
Dude, do you think that CAD crossed the support line ?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO king24253
7 months ago
Watch the purple trendline. It's still holding.
I think tomorrow FED will surprise everybody.
There will be a rate hike, or there will be a hawkish tone with a promise of a hike of the next FED meeting...
So the dollar will start to rally. USDCAD, USDJPY is heading to north, EurUsd is heading to south.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
7 months ago
Gold will start its decline to 1150.
Reply
king24253 chartwatchers
7 months ago
USDCAD is still going south, I believe if we cross the 1.25, then there would be freefall towards 1.20, is n't it? because USDCAD is really depend on oil. oil is going up for sure.
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