maccabean
Short

How much higher will the USDCAD go?

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
It seems nothing can stop the USDCAD             rally.
Crude oil             highs? Nope.
Great data releases? Nope.
American jobs below expections? Nope.
1.33 technical level resistance and supply? Perhaps, though will likely breach with current momentum.
Fed intransigence on raising rates? Nope.

There seems to be simply an impulse higher on a Canadian interest rate cut possibility and low growth issues. However, with these factors having been built into the price for some time now, this move seems overdone and technical indicators such as CCI saying the price is now overbought. Notice the reversal of the price at every CCI breakout.

So how much higher will the price go? Well, it seems to be bouncing off a former supper line that's now turned resistance. It has been trading in a loudspeaker pattern since August. I see this resistance line being the point at which the CAD reverses and heads back down to important levels of support.

The only challenge to this forecast is a determined move above the 200 MA and the move about former horizontal resistance at 1.32. Long term, I see the loonie continue to appreciate with crude oil             producing a very clear reverse head and shoulders pattern.

It may seem nothing can stop CAD depreciation, but this volatile currency hasn't changed its fundamental character.

Joshua Brown
http://www.thealphagenerator.com
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