Elliottician_SamRoy
Short

USDCAD: Is the consolidation about to end?

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
In my opinion, USDCAD             is about to finish the sideways consolidation (correction to larger degree downtrend) that started 5 months ago. If my wave counts are correct, we will soon see a fall of USDCAD             to go for wave-3 or wave-C to the downside. I will publish the detailed Elliott wave count labels & the Entry/Stoploss/Profit targets later in the comments.
Happy Profitable Investing :)

Comment: Pay attention to RSI divergence. Confirming price action is the key. We need to see impulsive break below the "green dotted line" on price chart in five waves down and three waves up. The break below the "green dotted line" on RSI will show green flag soon.
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Comment: Keep the bigger picture in mind. Although there is a probability that we will see one more wave up on monthly time frame which can make a new high above 1.46900 but current situation is showing enough room to the downside. Look at this 'Monthly' price chart. Points to pay attention to:
1. The correction of previous higher degree downward impulse reversed from 78.6% level
2. Bearish divergence on monthly time frame confirms the longer term downtrend is about to start
3. Recently the first downward impulse broke the green dotted line on RSI showing the power of bears
4. The price action trapped bulls by giving a false breakout on corrective price channel and price reversed back in the channel during same month
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Comment: Hello everyone. There is a minor change in wave count but over all bias is still bearish. The last pattern in price action was wave-a, wave-b and ending diagonal wave-c but now its formed as leading diagonal wave-a, flat wave-b and waiting for impulsive wave-c which may take out the previous high of 1.33119
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Comment: Hi guys. Price action on smaller time frame made some pattern which I recognize. But remember that short term patterns usually are deceptive and alter very often.
I know its too early to predict a top but last pattern + Bearish divergence on RSI + the pin bar on hourly time frame together make a good combo BUT its not enough of a sign of entering the market for shorting USDCAD. Only confirming price action is sign of jumping in. Please keep reviewing my charts plus your strategy/knowledge to confirm the top.
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Comment: Hi guys
Finally it looks like USDCAD has finished the higher degree correction and now we need to keep our eyes open to find the best entry to go short. It looks to me that we have got 5 minute waves down and the trend channel is also broken which implies that we will get 3 minute waves up to retest the channel - that would be our entry point given that it looks like correction but not impulse. So stay a little bit more patient and we will get what we deserve.
Happy trading :)
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Comment: Hi guys
As we can see the USDCAD has five waves down and three up but these three up are bit sharp as opposed to be slow and sloppy in corrective fashion. We can still take a small risk and target big profits. Lets see how price action unfolds. Always use tight StopLoss and never change it thinking that price may move in your direction someday.
Since the political situation in USA these days may provide high volatility so Risk is all yours. I can only show you what I see and wish you great luck!!

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Comment: Guys this down move from the end of prior purple wave-ii looks three waves instead of 1-2, i-ii to the downside so there could be an expanded Flat scenario in USDCAD so be careful. If this happens this would be a typical Stop-running act so keep your Stops above the end of black corrective wave-(2).
Good luck :)

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Comment: Just as we anticipated. Wave-c of ii is what we call an Expanding Ending Diagonal.
Good luck !!
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Perfect counting Sam!! , USD CAD is crushing after the completion of the Ending diagonal pattern , just as you anticipated ,, seems like there is still a lot of room to the downside
+1 Reply
@traderr27, yeah :). Managed to sell at the top. Now my Stop is better than breakeven. So, can u show me the chart highlighting the expanding ending diagonal? :P
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traderr27 Elliottician_SamRoy
@Elliottician_SamRoy, yeah Sam I managed to sell at the top as well , perfect timing!!! ,,, as you said before opportunities like this come just twice a year or so ,, so I wanted to know whether in such cases like this you go short at every opportunity that presents ( I mean like in this case, would you short the pair again later in lower degree waves , if the oppportunity presents ??)
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@traderr27, Yes bro. If the analysis is correct and we get bearish price action with upward corrections along the way, I would add more short positions at end of each correction until the higher degree third wave to the downside is convincingly over.
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one more high to complete the ED then down.

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+1 Reply
When would you sell??
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Confirming price action is the key. We need to see impulsive break below the "green dotted line" on price chart in five waves down and three waves up. I will publish when we see such price action. Its a long term trade with big gains expected. Opportunities like this occur only once or twice a year so lets wait for conservative entry.
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viper200 Elliottician_SamRoy
Great thanks for the nice charts, will keep an eye
+1 Reply
Nice set up,btw your name is so cool!!
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thanks :)
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