EverythingForex
Long

TRADE: USDCAD: BUY@1.28880 Wave Count + Structure = Wave 3?

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
1015 19 17
TRADE: USDCAD: BUY@1.28880 Wave Count + Structure = Wave 3?

If you fail, try and try again! In the previous LONG trade I posted, I took a loss because well, I jumped in too soon! It was a good looking setup but timing was off. So took a -19 pip hit. Yeah, it's a small loss but a loss is a loss.

Anyway, I'm taking another stab at it but this time, I've got PA on my side. Prices had dropped down below the previous minor structure that I had based my previous trade on. It hit the .382 retrace level as I thought it might and then quickly jumped back over that structure. Prices then continued up and hit the .382 level retrace of the previous leg down and now has dropped back down again to retest the .382 level below. Where I am now buying. This is bullish price action as long as prices do not now drop even lower. Prices now must hold above the low that touched the lower .382 level in order for this trade to work. If it does, then according to my wave count, the next move up should be a wave 3. This is what I'm trying to catch here.

With the recent price action, there is a POTENTIAL bat forming although at this moment, the C point is still not set yet. The completion of the bat could mark the end of the wave 3. Yes, that would mean that I am expecting a move higher still. But deal with that when the time comes. The bat completion also coincides with a descending TL that has formed.

MY TRADE PLAN
Stops will go below the recent low that stopped at the .382 level below. If prices were to drop below there, then my wave count will be invalidated and the trade would be closed. Yes, some might question about the wisdom of keeping such a tight SL but keep in mind that the reason for the trade is the wave count and trying to catch a possible wave 3 (if my count is correct). So if prices stop me out, I know my count was wrong and no reason to stay in. My TP1 will be at the completion of the bat. I'll examine the price action then to see how much profit to take off the table.

For those that do wonder about such tight SL, isn't that the purpose of wave counting is for? To find the most optimal price points to get into a trade with the least risk possible? This is also where PA comes in so handy as well. Even further tightening that SL and reducing risk. After all, managing risk is half the battle.

Actually, I think that if you have a large SL, then you have NOT done a good enough job of analyzing and figuring out where the best entry is.

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I can know my post was helpful to you. As always, any CONSTRUCTIVE comments are welcome whether AGREE or DISAGREE.
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TradebyRik
a year ago
snapshot

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minimax TradebyRik
a year ago
I like it too but expect small LL..
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minimax minimax
a year ago
might be wrong..isorry
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EverythingForex PRO minimax
a year ago
not about being right or wrong, bro. Ego doesn't matter in trading. Just about being on the right side of the market and making pips. I see your posts and you also make some good calls. Keep it up!
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minimax EverythingForex
a year ago
ty man
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venckusarunas
a year ago
Man you take trades on USDCAD just before oil inventory news comes out? with a tight stop loss? Thats suicide trade :) But that was a lucky trade, because news should support this trade :)
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EverythingForex PRO venckusarunas
a year ago
Thanks for the concern but I don't trade on the news. In fact, I had no idea that any oil inventories reports were due out, believe it or not! I trade on what the chart says. And if it doesn't work out, what is considered a "suicide trade"? Losing -20 pips? To possibly make +128? Hmmmm....how many 6.5:1 risk:reward trades does one see everyday? Yeah, it's a borderline trade but it's one that the chart supports until it shows me I'm wrong.

"Luck = hard work + preparation" I don't believe in dumb luck. I don't just "luck" into good trades.

BTW, please don't take my words out of context. I'm not challenging what you said just as I'm sure you weren't challenging the wisdom of my trade (were you?). :-)
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venckusarunas EverythingForex
a year ago
Dont consider 'suicide' and 'lucky' seriously. ;) I dont want to offend you. Btw your setup holded through news, thats perfect! Oil report and Obama speach passed :)
You post very good trades and good trade plans, I respect and appreciate that. I trade very similar style ;) -20 to +128 pips is very good ratio, that is rare setup. T.y. for posting it before it is too late.
And yes, I dont trade depending just on 'luck'. This is just simply luck this one time, that new supports this setup. That dont happen every time.
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BrunodeLima EverythingForex
a year ago
Good that's it
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Deon van der Merwe EverythingForex
a year ago
Great analysis. Also got stopped this morning but in again. One thing that I don't see is the BAT you are talking about as the first leg AB did not get to the 50% retrace level. So this should be a alt BAT with completion at 113%
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EverythingForex PRO Deon van der Merwe
a year ago
Bat B point can be between .382 - .50 retrace of AB.
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Deon van der Merwe EverythingForex
a year ago
Thanks for the reply. My BAT patterns have to retrace at least 50% of XA. Doesn't really matter matter in this case to me I traded divergence on 1H wave count and trendline support still good analysis your side
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kamehjin
a year ago
Is sl hit?
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Deon van der Merwe kamehjin
a year ago
I am out ignored one of my own rules. 38% retracement normally goes to 127% extention
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DiegoCarbajal
a year ago
No buyers all sellers here already 1.2838
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pyramids_Forex
a year ago
Hi man can you please tell where is the TP2 in this idea
BR
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EverythingForex PRO pyramids_Forex
a year ago
No TP's on this as I closed the trade when prices dropped below the lows.
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pyramids_Forex EverythingForex
a year ago
I seen TP1 in the chart and I thought it is take profit and thank you for your reply
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EverythingForex PRO pyramids_Forex
a year ago
you're welcome and sorry the trade did not work out as I planned. Next trade....
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