CAD/USD - strength in the great white north?

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Strong pinbar on the weekly - follows a steel/aluminum tariff threat from US that was quickly exempted (deferred to NAFTA talks) and some signs that oil & gold are about to explode upwards - all bullish for CAD.

Prices rejected and reversed from key resistance level of $1.29100 last week, a strong resistance level .

As the US has been driving the USD down, CAD has been restrained by low oil prices and uncertain metal prices. Metal & oil seem poised to take off which will strengthen the CAD. Inflationary pressure is growing in Canada, primarily from housing prices which surged but have just recently moderated.

On the daily chart , I am expecting a reversal and drop to the 200 EMA (1.27) or 100 EMA (1.26) before attempting to challenge to 1.29100 again.

Targeting a new short entry this week within the 1.28400 to 1.28600 (march contract) range with stop at 1.2900
Entry: $1.28500
Target: $1.2700
Stop: $1.2900
R/R: 500/1500 - 3:1 lower than desired but still reasonable if prices could fall to 1.26 (4:1)
Comment: Prices have retraced inside my sell window but there is more retracement to come in my opinion...only a 23.6% retracement so far, I want to see at least 38% ($1.28650) with an outside shot at 50% ($1.28800). Any price move beyond 1.29100 invalidates this ideas. Exercising patience....
Trade closed: stop reached: Stopped out. Idea invalid
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