EverythingForex
Short

ANALYSIS: USDCAD: Setting Up Wave (c) Down (Possilbe 500+ pips)

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
There is a very nice SHORT opportunity that could be setting up nicely assuming my wave count is correct and this pair is indeed in a wave 4 retracement wave of the the final 5 wave push to new highs. When I say "final 5 wave push to new highs", I am referring to the 5th wave of the LOONNGG standing 5 wave advance dating back from 4 years ago (7/2011) to present (see MONTHLY CHART). From my wave counts, that 5 wave advance is NOT YET OVER and the final wave (wave 5) is soon to be done. Maybe by mid-to-end of September.

Within that wave (5) monthly trend, I am focusing on the wave 5 of wave (5). This is where the opportunity lies. Just to wet your appetite, IF prices behave EXACTLY according to my projections, traded correctly, there is a possibility to make over 1000+ pips within this month next on this pair! Does that sound exciting? It's not that hard to envision but let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet.

WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW - Main Chart above (1Hr Chart)
By my wave count, we are well into the wave 4 of 5 of the final wave (5) from the monthly chart. Prices have just finished tracing out an expanding triangle pattern to complete wave (a) of wave 4 and is now advancing in wave (b) of wave 4. It should complete pretty soon and this is what the 2 POTENTIAL Gartley patterns are representing. One (the blue one) finishes right along the upper trendline of the triangle. The other (green one) finishes slight past it @.886. IF and when prices hit the D points of either Gartley , that should mark the end of wave (b) and wave (c) down should begin. Wave (c) has the potential to produce 500+ pips IF they complete the bullish crab pattern (roange; see 4Hr Chart).

OVERVIEW - MONTHLY CHART
I've talked about this C&H (cup and handle) pattern several times before in previous posts from MONTHS ago. Now the picture is becoming much clearer. Before, there was a question of whether the "handle" had been formed or not. Now, I believe that it has NOT and after this 5 wave advance is completed, the coming corrective wave should take prices lower to form the handle
snapshot

DAILY CHART - The POTENTIAL Bearish Crab + Final Wave (5) wave count
snapshot

4HR CHART - Detailing The Upcoming Wave (c) of Wave 4 Down Move For Possible 500+ Pips
When wave (b) is completed, the ensuing wave (c) down to possibly complete the wave 4 and mark the beginning of the wave 5 up to finish the major wave (5) should begin. This wave (c), if it unfolds EXACTLY as project it can yield 500+ pips and I think it should be done within 5-10 days or sooner. Note that the maximum finishing point cannot be lower than 1.25617 which is the ending point of the wave 1 of 5 as wave 4's cannot enter the price territory of wave 1's. If it does, then my wave count is wrong and will need to reassess what is happening.
snapshot

CONCLUSION AND MY TRADE PLAN
Now I am waiting for the completion of this wave (b) and will take SHORTS when prices reach the D point of the lower Gartley (blue one). The higher Gartley that finishes at the .886 would give a better risk:reward but taking the blue Gartley for me is better so as not to miss the beginning of wave (c) down. The PRZ of this Gartley includes the green Gartley and is not so big relatively speaking. If you do take the blue Gartley , you must make sure you can handle the drawdown. If my count is wrong and wave (b) continues up, keep in mind that this pair is STILL in a STRONG UPTREND and that prices could take off upwards at ANY TIME! It is even possible that this expanding triangle pattern IS the entire wave 4 and prices are now ALREADY moving up in a wave 5 (possible but not probable)! I'm NOT so tied into my predictions that I'm blind to that possibility So I remain flexible in my trade plan.
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*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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I am short from 1.31365. Let's see how it goes.Good luck!
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EverythingForex PRO Don_Corleone
a year ago
Good entry. I'm short now on this as well. Think it's pretty high probability we'll see it fall soon. Probably even before the FOMC. GL!
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