Right, so this is something that I have been preparing to publish for weeks now.
I have been looking around tradingview, and a I see a lot of people publishing short ideas at my "Fool areas" I believe these people will be burned by the fire and miss out twice on what might be the one wave you need to trade throughout 2017. Catch enough of these moves and I propose you won't need to trade anything else for the entire year.
Obviously this initial chart is very rough, but this is how I propose that the flag formation that we have on Weekly is going to map out.
Confluences:
61.8 fib of the initial drop making a beautiful textbook flag formation on weekly
On Monthly, this potential head and shoulder pattern will finish wave 2, before the massive drop that will be wave 3
On Daily, if you use Murrey Math, you will find that the +1/8 Sell line is directly aligned with the 61.8 fib. +2/8 Strong Sell is slightly below the stop loss area in the signal given on the chart
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For the love of god, don't enter early on this one.
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Additional confluence:
On January 20th I propose that Donald Trump being the new POTUS will set off the next recession - I fear that this recession will be in line with what happened back in the 1930s. A once in a lifetime shorting opportunity.
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<deleted> Buying the right shoulder in the bottom of the channel expecting the final push to the top
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Obviously I was wrong about these movements. Selling would in fact have been a great idea. I underestimated the bearish potential this late in the flag formation.
Will look for price action in the bottom of the channel next week to see if we will finish off with a harmonic pattern before breaking the uptrend channel.
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Looks like the price won't make a new high prior to dropping. Will update with new analysis over the weekend to determine possible short entries.
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Trader_Dale
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Thanks for your great analysis!
Here is my view on USD/CAD if you are interested:
Based on Market Profile (volumes) and Price Action there are two very strong resist/support zones.
The short level (1.3666) is placed where a cummulation before a strong sell-off took place.
The long level (1.2922) is based on strong rejection activity accompanied by huge volumes (seen on the right cummulative volume on the right).
If you are interested there are more Market profile swing and intraday analysis in my profile page. You are very welcome there!
Dale
Exercise-Discipline
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Why would a recession be bearish for USDCAD? Would expect CAD, commodities to fall in a recession - as in 2008
UnknownUnicorn560420
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@TanayUK, Good question. I believe that the recession will be harder on the US Dollar than on the Canadian Dollar.
If the Dollar is weak, USD CAD would be bearish :)
Exercise-Discipline
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@ChristianHoeghHolm, I see your point. My argument would be that there is a structural shortage of dollars due to massive amounts of off-shore debt - and that the current dollar strength is feeding on itself, making the shortage a bigger problem.
The dollar strength would be bearish for oil and thus, CAD.
IMO USDCAD longs are the best opportunity of 2017
But I respect your analysis and thoughts, 2017 should be fun :)
UnknownUnicorn560420
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@TanayUK, We can't both be right, thats for sure. Keep in mind that I pay nearly no attention to fundamentals, but rather technical levels. This one lines up with ALOT of bearish technical levels
Exercise-Discipline
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@ChristianHoeghHolm, Ah fair enough, I only use fundamentals aha. Let's have a chat later on next year, this pair will be interesting for sure :) have a good weekend!
AnneSmith
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@ChristianHoeghHolm, monthly technical levels do not look bearish either
UnknownUnicorn560420
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@AnneSmith, To me it looks like we've finished a bearish W harmonic pattern and we are in the last opportunity to get in before the big frop
The only bullish signal I see is a cup and handle that would be valid only IF we break to the upside. Should that happen, we'll look at that when the time comes. I highly doubt it though.
NeverNO
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"fools... idiots... sucker... jerk... moron... twit..." do you really need such terms?
This kind is not professional and instead of greeting your analysis, consider whether the word "fools" does not point to your arrogance.
UnknownUnicorn560420
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@NeverNO, I believe this is the result of being raised in the "warehouse" world rather than the office world. Perhaps I'll stick to Bear and Bull traps.
Here is my view on USD/CAD if you are interested:
Based on Market Profile (volumes) and Price Action there are two very strong resist/support zones.
The short level (1.3666) is placed where a cummulation before a strong sell-off took place.
The long level (1.2922) is based on strong rejection activity accompanied by huge volumes (seen on the right cummulative volume on the right).
If you are interested there are more Market profile swing and intraday analysis in my profile page. You are very welcome there!
Dale