I like this idea a lot. That 1.1200 area looks solid and has support confluence. The market has not moved much today giving people who missed the idea first time around a second chance. Oil is down hard as well which is bullish for usdcad
I believe hopium will get the best of it. I am position trading myself. Lower leveraged shorts, while adding legs on major spikes. I am looking to hold at least six months. Although, you're right. If it does breakout, I wouldn't mind going long here and there for a quick few pips. Unless the fundamentals change, my sentiment will remain the same.
Also, notice how even on the up dollar days, CAD has held in there which wasn't the case in 2013 and most of this year.
I don't believe oil will play a major roll unless we see some serious declines. We've seen over 20% retracements since the summer high, and CAD is still hanging in there. We are getting to some multi-year resistance at the 1.1385/1.14.