USDCAD: bearish outlook

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
The CAD continues to appreciate against the USD on higher oil             prices. Oil             prices rose by around 1% on Wednesday, lifted by a report of a drop in U.S. crude inventories and declining production in China, while an upbeat OPEC statement on its planned output cut also supported the market.
U.S. crude stockpiles fell 3.8 million barrels in the week to Oct. 14, to 467.1 million barrels, the API reported late on Tuesday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is due to release official crude and fuel storage data later on Wednesday.
Mohammed Barkindo, secretary general of the OPEC, said he was confident about the prospects of a planned production cut following an OPEC meeting on November 30. In its first output cut agreement since 2008, OPEC said it plans to reduce production to 32.50 million to 33.0 million barrels per day, compared with record output of 33.6 million barrels per day in September.
Domestic manufacturing data reinforced a view that Canadian economic growth rebounded in the third quarter. Manufacturing sales rose by 0.9% in August from July, stronger than the 0.2% gain expected.
Investors are turning their attention to the Bank of Canada, which is due to release its latest economic forecasts along with an interest rate decision today (14:00 GMT             ). It is widely expected that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged. We do not expect any dovish suggestions from the Bank of Canada and forecast no rate changes in the coming months.
We keep our bearish USD/CAD             outlook. Current short-term downward trend may stop for a while near an important support of 1.2986 (38.2% fibo of May-October rise and 23.6% fibo of January-May drop), which is also close to the rising trendline .
Source: - Daily Forex Trading Strategies
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