This pair has been in a series of trends within a correction. When in this mood, there are good opportunities to make pips unlike when it was in the tight consolidation triangle a month ago where if you were trading, you most likely got swung back and forth. So if this is the case, where is the opportunity? I think there is one now.
WAVE COUNT So this pair is now in the midst of it's correction which I have labeled a wave 4. It seems to have completed it's wave (A) and its' wave (B). It could be working on its' wave (C) right now. And it may have finished the wave (a) and wave (b) of that larger wave (C). If that is correct, then we are looking at a wave (c) down in motion.
PATTERNS There are 2 POTENTIAL patterns that are present that are relevant to the price action and my wave count. One is a butterfly and the other is a bat. Both are pointing prices down. The butterfly would complete at or near an extended TL formed by to wave peaks previously. This is a minor TL so it may not prove useful but it is there. The bat would complete near the recent lows where I have the wave (A) having ended. This would be a retest of those lows BUT if prices do complete this bat AND reverses from there, then we COULD be seeing the formation of a wave 4 triangle which when complete, will see prices rise again probably up and past the highs.
MY TRADE PLAN I am SHORTING this pair now for a trip down a possible wave (c). I'll place my stops above the end of wave (b) of this wave (C) so that if prices were to reach back up past that point, then there's a chance that we may see higher prices ahead. My TP's are shown on the chart.
*DISCLAIMER: Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
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HI EF. Just wondering. at PL 1.283 the wave count is ending at (5) but also showing corrective wave count as A from the same PL. Shouldn't the upside corrective wave be wave A . Also did not get the reason for marking the corrective upside wave as abc abc abc. instead of the usual norm of abc X abc X abc.
EverythingForex
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I understand the confusion. I probably should've used a larger (A) label. The wave (A) was a 5-wave down move. That's why you see the (A) marked there along with the (5). The (5) was my labeling for the 5-wave wave (A). Look at the attached chart for clarification. As for the abc, abc, abc labeling, that corrective wave can be seen in many ways. My view of it was a WXY double combo (I forgot to mark the WXY) abc-x-abc which the second abc was the X (which can be any 3). It can't be a triple combo as there weren't enough 3's for that.
TradebyRik
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Thks EF for the clarification. much appreciate. I am trying hard to count the waves as you so accurately often give. Having read the books by Scott Carney and Robert Pretcher, i want to learn the same method of analysis as your do, but its just so damn difficult to arrive at a wave count when there are numerous possibilities with all the subs divisions within each cycle. I know its early stages for me and it all needs lot of patience to get to your stage. Thks again for haring your ideas. Gives really a good practical insight of future rather than those giving wave counts in Hindsight.
aeu.webmaster
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TP 1 reached...i got out...was wondering if I should wait for it to recover a little or go in again for TP 2? thanks,
EverythingForex
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Well, if you got out of the trade completely, then you must've had a reason for that, right? Once you get out of a trade, you are out. You should not jump back into a trade for no reason. To get back in again, then you must see another good sell setup to do so. Don't "chase" trades.
TradeYodha
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I have similar long idea. I agree with your targets mate. There are bat and butterfly completions occurring at the same place.
IvanLabrie
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Same view overall. I'm short after booking the first entry. Shorted today again.