It did this week, forming a . The final leg down was weak and looks like a bear leg in a trading range, not in a bear trend. The final was a triangle with two bars above the .
The context for the bulls looks strong but they have not created a strong breakout, so the odds of a reversal up are prob 50-60%. If there is a bull spike with consecutive bull bars, the odds will be much greater.
The one problem for the bulls is that the broader (maroon, thick, lower right corner) may have to be tested first.
Bull targets: 1.4 (higher high) and 1.43 (test of start of )
The scalpers exited on the Low 2 and will buy a strong reversal and/or bull breakout.
In the past few days, the market made a small HL and LH, which is a triangle. The market is in breakout mode, and the bears will probably have a small move down that will reverse up.