Kumowizard

USDCAD - Some says it's time to buy for a pop up. Is it?

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
185 0 4
I don't think so. We need to wait a bit more and we need more signals.

First of all any long trade on this pair is against the major and well working bearish trend , which itself has a smaller chance to work. This doesn't mean it can't work, but in case of counter trend trades I just can not emphasize enough times, how important the timing is when you enter it.

Yes I see Slow stoch is oversold, and I see MACD has some initial upward bias too. However 4 Hrs time frame has not yet shown even the smallest bullish signal. Price is well below a thick cloud, can not even stuck above Kijun Sen, Tenkan/Kijun not yet even showed a weak bullish cross, Chikou Span is still below price candles, DMI             and Slow Stoch are both bearish .

Get back to Daily chart . Ichimoku can help you in a lot of ways, it has really everything built in it, such as the Chikou Span which clearly helps you identify the important possible support/resistances at one glance too. You don't have to roll back the chart too much, as you can quickly see Chikou peaks and bottoms. The more you find around a certain level, the bigger the chances are for that level to act as supp/res. again. As I marked it with a horizontal line, the next important level is not here or at 1,06 handle, but rather around 1,0575.

In case you'd like to play bottom fishing, you should wait for price getting closer to this 1,0575 level, or just buy really small clips here, betting that the longer term trendline will hold for now together with the oversold momentum indicators. It can easily happen that on back of a macro data, as first knee jerk reaction we see one more selloff downto or sub 1,06, washing out the too early counter bulls, then of course printing pin bar and a false break of the trendline. So either you buy small with a lot bigger nominal stop loss, or rather you should not enter a counter trend long trade until you see bullish signals on the 4 Hrs timeframe.

In case a counter trend move takes place, the retracement target will be 1,0785 - 1,0800. So count risk-reward based on these numbers, and be smart!
Not smarter than the market, but smarter then yourself! :-)
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