Sforex

USDCAD: negative CPI will lift up the pair.

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
330 2 2
I enter a BUY position of USDCAD             to 1.0790 ,stop loss at 1.0710

Tomorrow, the main focus relating to Loonie is inflation report.

As usual, there are two options on the table:

- Positive - USDCAD             falls down

-Negative: USDCAD             soars up

I don't believe CPI             of Canada will be positve.

-Firstly, there are too much bad economic data :
+ Unemployment rate climbs fom 6.8% to 7.1% in one month; this will restrict the purchasing power of Canadians.
+Ivey Purchasing Manager Index ( the main indicator of purchasing power of Canada) fell below 50.
+New Housing Price also down to 1.5% from 1.6%. The dynamic for increasing of CPI             of Canada comes from the housing price. Noew Housing price was below the expect, so I think it would transfer to final CPI             tomorrow.
+Canada GDP also fell by 0.1% to 0.1%. This indeed big challenge for Canada to maintain development target.

- Secondly, in last BOC             Meeting, BOC             Governor Poloz said that Inflation pressure was just temporary, and he didn't inflation is a big problem for Canada. BOC             pays attention mainly on development and labor market than inflation pressure.


Finally, I keep the LONG position of USDCAD             to 1.0790

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My eyes are on that same level. Good stuff
Reply
HexVex
2 years ago
Excellent analysis! Thanks!!
Reply
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