CBMotivation
Short

USD / CAD - Weekly Pin Bar - SHORT

OANDA:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Trump has again decided to influence the US$, despite some pretty strong economic numbers coming out, the DXY rejected the 95.5 high for about the 10th time and the Canadians have produced some good CPi numbers, just as we hit the 50% fib level, he obviously wants a cheaper currency for many reasons. On the Charts, the DXY was divergent on the weekly time frame, so we've been expecting a correction to the downside anyway.

While Crude is moving sideways right now, it is in a long-term bullish trend , strengthen CAD and therefore, I'm looking for a break of the long-term trend line at 1.31. Should that happen with some strength and it holds, then I would expect to reach one of two targets, both fib levels, 1.29 and 1.275
Comment: Look at that pin bar on the weekly time frame, supported by the engulfing candle on the daily as the second move to the downside from 1.335, the third rejection.

Trade active: Breaking trend line, I'm in early, but like the look of it
Comment: I hours later and we didn’t break the trend line over night, in fact the USD looks stronger.
Comment: Crude has weakened on oversupply worries impacting CAD, $ bounces back after increased treasury yields and less Trump tweets (today anyway).

The best pair would be AUD / USD rather than USD / CAD
Trade closed manually
Comment: We've broken the trend line, look for a pullback to get in.

Comment: The pull line is my 21 day EMA
Comment: Blue horizontal line is the bottom of the 21 day EMA
Comment: The US$ is rocketing, so I won't be taking this trade until we know where Oil is going. I would check out my AUD / USD trade instead

Comment: The bulls will be looking to break this trend line, then smash through it, pullback and hold, resistance becoming support, if that happens, they will be back into the bull channel

Comment: If we don't break the trend line, we can sell down from there
Trade active: Failed to break, trade is now active US$ is now dropping against the other currencies

Comment: Crude is now rocketing up, increasing the price of CAD

Comment: Crude continues to drive higher, we're now pulling back, bringing in more buyers and driving CAD higher, forcing the US$ down.



The DXY is selling off nicely

Comment: We're going much lower yet... Red $ is declining fast while Orange CAD is rising still.



The DXY has a while to fall yet

Comment: More importantly, the reason these trades have moved, it's Crude Oil! No other reason fuelled this action at this rate.

Higher oil prices will drive up the Canadian and Aussie dollars, Bond yields will help move the dollar. So be aware of this when looking at other pairs and Equities will be impacted by the reduced dollar and increased Oil, they will go up.

Comment: My target is 1.29 and 1.28 the major fib levels

Comment: Look at the support that 1.295 should that be broken, then we'll move down to retest the edge of the channel @1.29-1.28 this is the fib level and the EMA, we'd need a strong Bull trend on Crude and a weak or stagnant US$. Who knows with all the geopolitical games going on.

Lots of components fundamental and technical to keep our eye on here.



The very big picture, this pair have been in decline since 2016, are we about to resume that trend?

Comment: Lovely rejection of 1.31 confirms we're going lower

Comment: Beautiful

Comment: I've been in this since the middle of July, still confident we're going for the edge of the channel below 1.29 - 1.28

1.3005 little too optimistic?
Reply
@Buckz, Not impossible, look at what Crude is following, I created this a few weeks ago...at the end of the day, it's your risk management strategy which will tell how much you wish to risk and at what point.

+1 Reply
Pull back to the 8 EMA on 15min chart possibly hapening now
+1 Reply
Is it still probable that we will see a pull back to the 1.29?
Reply
CBMotivation wilsongalucho
@wilsongalucho, No idea yet... the trend line hasn't been broken
Reply
i am in
Reply
Great insight. Are you shorting?
Reply
@dr90210, as per the title of the idea - YES
+1 Reply
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