IvanLabrie
Short

USDCAD: I'm a (brave) oil buyer

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
2097 36 43
This is a quarterly resistance so I consider it interesting to try considering the downside potential in this juncture.
If we were to cross my stop, we'd have to see how it fares against the next red zone above.
I'm thinking this is a significant low in the stocks and oil             , and thus, a great chance to short USDCAD             when there're no oil             bulls left. Someone's holding all these giant CAD positions, and it's bleeding massively, they have to get squeezed soon, and I think the time is now.

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Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.
Trade active: Seems to be working.
Trade closed manually: I covered at 1.445 today, didn't manage to update before.
Looks like we're headed up. If short and losing get out asap.
Target: 1.46981
Comment: (I'm long btw)
Comment: Closed long at 1.465, had stop at entry for remaining 25% of position (got stopped at BE)
Now it's looking a like a top here.
Comment: Talk about a good call...Shame my stop was too tight here.
Trade closed: target reached
i hope sir that price will go into your way but it does't look like that there is sell signal at the movement before touching 1.60 or at least 1.51 short cover. as we can see heavy buy pressure is there so i think there is no sell at the movement until we see a strong sell impulse which does't look like there at the movement.
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IvanLabrie PRO GoodLuckbabe
It depends on how you trade.
Also, I'm willing to lose 1% if it doesn't work.
+1 Reply
GoodLuckbabe IvanLabrie
agree
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Its is possible but it might be just a pullback. Just an opinion
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Yes, but even if it is, I have a tight stop, with interesting downside.
If it works it's a profitable trade, that's the core idea with this type of entry.
Also, it's really interesting that we've reached this quarterly resistance, while people are so negative about oil/cad/stocks.
Literally everyone's a bear.
+1 Reply
JackyG IvanLabrie
Nice thought Ivan, I am looking to short this pait too as oil needs a recovery IMO. I already have some shorts on this pair, where would you place the SL? Thank you!
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SL is there on chart, 1.4675.
If stopped it'll go and test the next level so we could flip long there with an ATR stop.
+1 Reply
Yes i am agree with you oil needs recovery JACKY but not now cause more downside is there i think you don't know IRAN has entered in the international market after 40 years ban and looking for oil supply with 0.5 million per day means more supply is there in the market and more downside is there in oil prices and more bulls on USDCAD and i also think BOC press conference in next week will not help the CAD as more people hoping from the BOC that they will do something for the CAD but i don't think so its gonna work at the movement until we see stability in OIL prices.
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IvanLabrie PRO GoodLuckbabe
I think we reached a peak in bearish sentiment for oil, so I'm inclined to go the other way.
This quarterly resistance is a good enough excuse.
I know about the fundamentals, but I also think those things are priced in, and that we've reached a climax of max hysteria about it, sufficient enough for all CAD bulls to quit, and for a bottom to appear. (even if termporary)
+1 Reply
JackyG IvanLabrie
true Ivan, this is what I am saying, much is priced in. What scares me at the moment is that Interest Rate Issue regarding the CAD. I dont think oil can slide MUCH further, altough there would be a little room. on the other side, how much can it slide? Will we get Crude for free? :)) it would be nice, since in Europe Fuel Prices are astronomical. Crude lost 70% of its value in 2 years, but I dont see any 70% reduction in Gas prices. On the other hand, USD/CAD had 10 straight days in wich it was only moving up.
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JackyG GoodLuckbabe
Yes I know, if we dont have stability in OIL we wont see the CAD recover soon. BUT, I knew about the IRAN Issue since 2 days ago, and maybe the liftoff in export sanctions is already priced in on friday, because the market knew that the sanctions will be lifted on Sunday. It wont be new news for the market. I agree with you Iran will bring more supply, but I also heard Iran wont be able to export Crude only in a few months from now. So supply wont grow immediatly this week. Thanks for your opinion and may the trades be profitable
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Good Luck Guys
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GoodLuckbabe GoodLuckbabe
i hope IVAN you are not in this trade yet i think we need to see how this 70 pips gap up will play the role either this is a runway gap or reversal gap time will tell us again good luck guys
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IvanLabrie PRO GoodLuckbabe
Stop not hit = trade valid...don't be so worried.
+1 Reply
GoodLuckbabe IvanLabrie
i am not worried bro it will hit let see tomorrow it run away gap bro
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO GoodLuckbabe
No prob.
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GoodLuckbabe IvanLabrie
1.46750 hit it looks like we gonna see 1.60 in coming days if it is run way gap on weekly and if we see bullish pin bar on weekly close. good to know you acted before your stop loss hit very nice strategy bro trying to learn this thing cheers .regards
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And so , we punched through this KEY HOT ZONE soo hard!

As it stands, PRICE ACTION doesn't show any rejection of Higher Prices.
(Hence, going short Is risky for me)

However, Such huge bars , late in trends, often show climatic behaviours.
And this could send prices lower, But This isn't my style. It's better to follow
after the footprints of price.
USDCAD: RUNNING INTO KEY HOT ZONE
+1 Reply
Hey Ivan as a fellow Canadian myself, with the news that with Iran Sanctions lift off yesterday and the possible Oil Barrel going to $10, the possibility of the pair here going higher 1.5-1.6 is very very high ;)
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IvanLabrie PRO BitcoinGuru
I swear I've heard this too many times.
I believe it's the 99% of people's view, and thus, probably leading to a retracement at the very least here. ;)
+1 Reply
riya14 IvanLabrie
on opening yoday, there will have some impact on usd/cad OR oil on this news
what do you think?
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Yes, definitely.
Let's see how it goes.
+1 Reply
riya14 IvanLabrie
Thanks Ivan!
I am your fan, big time
+2 Reply
Thanks. All the best!
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BitcoinGuru IvanLabrie
glad your stoploss got hit man.
tbh i was close to 90% sure we will be heading higher
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IvanLabrie PRO BitcoinGuru
It wasn't hit, I covered short at 112 pip profit, then after seeing the move up went long and closed in profit, twice.
I'm now looking to short again.
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Should look into XLE if you think we're reversing now
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This one's a nicer trade...I also have TSLA longs already, and others in my portfolio. No need for XLE, personally.
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Lanmar PRO IvanLabrie
It is only nicer if your target is reached, which I think is far too ambitious at this time.
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Targets are just systematic...I don't care if not hit, the stop is tight. Any multiple of my initial risk is money.
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Lanmar PRO IvanLabrie
I hear that
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You are very brave... I am also short too long oil... I do agree this should be a tech turn for a little bit. Do not know how much we will get out of it... will find out soon...
+1 Reply
London selling, looking good.
snapshot
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M4B0X. M4B0X.
Update:
snapshot

target hit:
snapshot
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Yes, currently a support. There's some upside left in crude though.
+1 Reply
Agree with most recent comment - big time.
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