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IMPORTANT UPDATE & ANALYSIS: USDCAD: Overall Bullish BUT NOT NOW

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
In my previous post on this pair, I pointed out 2 bearish harmonic patterns that were on the 15M TF that I said may be pointing the way back up for a nice LONG. Well, they were both quickly invalidated but it's not unexpected as they were on 15M TF. More important was the bearish setups that were pointed out (the 2618 and the H&S patterns).

What you are seeing in the above chart is a bullish crab pattern that has emerged due to the price action. This bullish crab will lead right down into the completion of wave A of an ABC retracement wave that will take prices even lower in the coming days/weeks.

BRIEF SUMMARY OF WHAT TO EXPECT NOW
One word: RETRACEMENT! I suspect this pair is now in a full-on retracement mode. And right now, we are in the very beginning stages of it. If you got SHORT as per my last post on the 2 bearish patterns, STAY SHORT!!! There's MORE to come! But what kind and how far and how deep the retracement? Let's try to answer that now....

OVERVIEW - Monthly Chart
Yes, I posted this several times already in previous posts but nothing wrong with a reminder, right? And for those that had not seem my previous posts, why not?
snapshot

WEEKLY OVERVIEW - Closeup of Wave 5 of the Main Trend
snapshot

DAILY CHART - Closeup Overview of Current Price Action
Wave Count
This chart is zoomed in on the current price action which has just completed the wave iii             (purple) of wave (i) (red).. That would mean that there is still a wave iv and a wave v of the larger wave (i) of the ending wave 5 (thick blue line). What this also means is that prices are now in a wave iv retracement of wave iii             shown as a ABC zigzag (green). But really, that is only an illustration of the wave iv and NOT exactly what I am expecting. Fourth waves can be notoriously difficult to predict in what form they will unfold. Can be very complicated patterns.
POTENTIAL Bearish Crab
You'll also notice that I've drawn a bearish crab in and that crab will be completed at the end of this wave (i) of wave 5. Also notice that I've drawn wave iv (the green ABC corrective wave) to end at or near the B point of the crab . Why there? In terms of wave rules, 4th waves cannot intrude into the price territory of wave 1's. And you can see that the B point is also the end of the first wave of this wave (i).
snapshot

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS:
Previously, I was thinking that prices were going to again try to test the MAJOR SR Structures and maybe break through them for good. But having re-examined the wave count after recent PA, it seems clear to me that isn't going to happen right now. Now, I think prices will be retracing for a while. As noted above, I don't think the wave 5 of the major trend up has been finished. In fact, I think it has only just begun! With the current PA only being in the first wave of that ending wave 5. I believe wave 5 will eventually take prices up and over the MAJOR SR Structure and continue very much higher. But for now, I am SHORT as per my last posting on this pair and I intend to hold on to those positions for a while. When prices complete the bullish crab pattern you see in the main chart above, I will again re-assess the situation and determine if I should still hold SHORT.

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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Because there wasn't enough room for writing this in the main post, I'll add it here. That POTENTIAL bullish crab would complete RIGHT AT THE MAJOR SR Structure! It couldn't be more perfect! I did not "fit" the crab to make the D point to be right there! It just did. When I did the 1.618 extension for it, I was really surprised how well this crab fits into my overall wave count that I have for this pair. I ahd already done the wave count before I put in the crab so I did not adjust my wave count to fit the crab either.
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