Starting with the weekly chart this morning, price is currently showing little response from supply at 1.3818-1.3630. Daily action on the other hand saw the market print its second-consecutive indecision candle on top of a swap support coming in at 1.3721. In the event that the buyers are able to keep this pair above here this week, the next upside target to be aware of falls in at supply drawn from 1.4001-1.3904.
Seeing as how this pair is trending extremely strong at the moment, and the fact that price is currently holding above a daily swap (support) barrier (see above), we feel the only logical path for this pair is north! Granted, we cannot ignore that weekly trade is loitering within supply (see above), but one cannot deny that this weekly area has its work cut out for it if it is to halt this current buying frenzy which will likely be strengthened should the Fed step in a raise rates later on today.
That being the case, our team will be looking for 1.3750 to be taken out and retested as support today. This, in turn, will effectively be our cue to begin hunting for lower timeframe buy setups into this market. Should the above come to fruition, psychological resistance 1.3800 is the next obvious target.
Levels to watch/ live orders:
• Buys: Watch for offers to be consumed around 1.3750 and then look to trade any retest seen at this level (confirmation required).
• Sells: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
Now, we have a strong arrival at the unfreshed monthly/weekly supply zone. This could be a good opportunity for shorts until 1.3500 - 1.3450.
The other possibility is that the zone get consumed. Then I'll look for longs all the way to 1.4500 - 1.4600
The fondamentals are very weak for CAD and very strong for USD. So, will see if this monthly supply will hold.