4xForecaster

$USD v $CAD - LESSON: Wolfe Wave vs. Geo vs. Model #BOC #forex

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
2754 40 31
a year ago
Friends,

Here is perhaps an opportunity to peel confounding details between the Wolfe Wave and the Geo             , using an independent model (Predictive/Forecasting Model).


WOLFE WAVE BASICS:

In its purest form, the Wolfe Wave suggests that upon completion of its 5th plot at Point-5, price is expected to reverse away from the geometry's 1-3 Line and move counter-trend-wise to the geometry's 1-4 Line, ak.a.: its profit line.

The other aspect of the Wolfe Wave is that it exists independent of any geometry, indicator or any advanced or subtle internal constructs. Therefore, Elliott Wave internal developments, Scott Carney's patterns, or Welles Wilder's RSI are simply not needed to confirm the simple completion of the Wolfe Wave ("WW"). It simply is what it is, and once complete, Point-5 becomes a point of counter-trend entry.


GEO             BASICS:

In contrast, the "Geo" depends on certain geometric             conditions, such as the reciprocal ab = cd symmetry of its 1-2 Leg, as well as Elliott Wave Double-ZZ (DZ) or Triple-ZZ (TZ) internal constructions of its 2-3 Leg, a simple ZZ of its 3-4 Leg, and at time, a cluster of Fibonacci values (1.414 or 1.618 are the most often sought) between these same legs (1-2, 2-3 and 3-4).


"WW" + "GEO" versus "Model"

As a reminder though: Any and all geometries used in my analyses stand in the background as visual support to the Predictive/Forecasting Model ("Model"), which stands as a completely independent actor in defining targets. It's simply that I have found the Wolfe Wave - and later on the refinement of the Wolfe Wave expressed at the "Geo" - as the closest geometries capable to closely spouse the extent of price action defined by the Model.

In effect, the Model will be able to define retracement and reversal levels, but remains incapable to define the bar-by-bar manner by which it will get to these targets. In contrast, the Wolfe Wave suggests the general "envelop" of that action, while the "Geo" defines in greater details intrinsic and predictive clues (1-4 Line as target based on internal rules, such as "Tunneling", "Geo-Anchoring" as external rule such as the Geo's OffSet Rule).


snapshot


OVERALL:

Independent from the geometries, the Predictive/Forecasting Model calls for higher highs attainment, namely the following two qualitative targets:

1 - TG-Hi = 1.27129 - 02 JUL 2015

and

2 - TG-Hix = 1.28144 - 02 JUL 2015

Whereas, the standard Wolfe Wave would simply call for a reversal at Point-5 and a take-profit along the 1-4 Line. I thought that this $USDCAD would offer the perfect opportunity to decipher and better explain the properties that distinguish Mr. Bill Wolfe's namesake WW and my discovery of the Geo             and the development of an independent Predictive/Forecasting Model. All three are complementary and not meant to degrade one against the other - They simply offer a valuable edge that help the trader guard against premature actions.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
-----


.
a year ago
Comment: 02 OCT 2015 - Following is a cut/paste of recent input into the "Update Status", to keep charts chronologically ordered and uncluttered from discussion thread.

====================
19 OCT 2015 - 19 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

$USDCAD has rallied into a corrective geometry, with limited upside potential. Close scrutiny of recent price action reveals that a combination of structural tops, channel-top and Predictive/Forecasting top vaue ("TG-Hi") may be converging to herald a probable reversal.

Following M15 Chart calls for imminent overhead resistance:
1 - Predictive/Forecasting Model defines 1.30522 as probable level of resistance.;
2 - Channel offers its own dynamic resistance with up-sloping upper border as shown;
3 - Model's value falls in line with recent R/S area:

snapshot


David Alcindor


ADDENDUM - Following is the H1 chart, putting all of these technical elements in the broader context:

snapshot


David Alcindor


30 OCT 2015 - Tech-Note:


The following is a cut/paste commentary going on in the $GBPCAD chart - Since it involves the #loonie, I thought it might be pertinent to share this analysis here as well:

================
Yes, @ xxx , @ xxx - Also, I often imagine majors representing the ANVIL, and the base currency (here, the $USD of the major), representing the HAMMER - Not sure if this analogy works for you, but it really is the shape of the $USDCAD that will act as the MOLD from which to CAST all other subservient $CAD crosses.

Let's take a look at what's going on in the $USDCAD, just to illustrate what might (just might) be going on in the $GBPCAD:

First, here is a nascent Geo/WW (BLACK):
snapshot



However, if you take a few steps back, you might also recognize the encompassing of a larger nascent Geo (BLUE):
snapshot



Also, notice that the Predictive/Forecasting Model did call TWO targets, a first one just hit, and and second one floating above at 1.33352 - This is worth keeping n mind, since the method here is to let the Model define a target, then turn to the geometry to explain a probable mechanism of access to these sometimes distant targets.

Now, in relation to the $GBPCAD, there may be a "sense" that more consolidation might be going on. And this is likely that this would occur at this time, simply because the HAMMER is currently shaping up a lower low in the larger Geo.

Of course, this is all probability, but what else do we have, except looking back, before everything is done and said, right?
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
=================
a year ago
Comment: 02 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / ech-Note:

Price continues to rally towards Point-4 of each geometry:

snapshot


David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 03 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price followed forecast closely, but exceeded the expectation of a 2-4 Line definition:
snapshot


Instead, a similar geometry is developing in the 1-hour timeframe:
snapshot


Provided that this larger geometry imposes itself, it should then delay predefined bullish target as price would possibly rest to the lower support defined in the chart.

David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

This educational trade is coming to conclusion. I hope you enjoyed the ride.

snapshot


David Alcindor

=====================

Here is a quick self-congratulatory recap:

30 OCT 2015:
snapshot



02 NOV 2015:
snapshot



03 NOV 2015:
snapshot



As of market close, on 06 NOV 2015:
snapshot


Much appreciate your continued kind following and friendly referrals. As I just wrote to a trader asking to receive signals:

====================
"There is no membership, no fee, no site to visit - I make my own money trading where my mouth is, and I keep a detailed electronic record on TradingView.

What you get is often what I trade, but I leave stop-loss and other trade management up to the trader. I esteem that the trader will calibrate his/her own risk based on a self-assessment of asset, tolerance and goals.

I appreciate your following me. If anything, do refer traders, friends, peers and family to the charts and comments I post, if you believe they may benefit from these advanced analyses.

Again, thank you so very much for your generous supportive words and kind, friendly referrals.

David Alcindor"
====================

Cheers,


David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 12 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price surges towards TG = 1.33352 target defined this past October 29th, 2015. Whether price moves into a straight line to the target remains to be seen:

snapshot


David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 12 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note: * * * TARGET HIT * * *

Price hit target. Expecting time-consumptive development over next day. High-probability reversal to illustrated level:

snapshot


David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: ... ADDENDUM - Educational Trade Tip:

There is a slight possibility that price adversely excurses into the defined Fibonacci extension ... Consider setting a 1.414 of 1.414-FE Stop-Loss.

:-)

David
a year ago
Comment: 18 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Following target hit at 1.33352, price ventured to the aforementioned 1.414-FE (a typical level of reversal within an aggressive counter-tending market) ... Look for these two levels (pink arrows) as potential technical hurdles ... Breach would open floor to bears:

snapshot


David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
02 JUN 2015 - ADDENDUM:

Tech-Note:

For those familiar with the pattern, I have left to the obvious the lesser parabolic contour of a larger system referred to the "Kiss-of-Death", or "KoD".

This pattern was shared by Jason Stapleton and Akil Stokes (both are members to the TradingView community), at the time I was an active member at the "MasterMind". There are degrees of probabilities I have assigned to patterns in the past, and the KoD fall in the low probability range of success in terms of witnessing a reversal at the completion of a second, deeper parabola base, which would effectively complete into a triple-top. However, it is also the safest and best companion in trading simple set-ups - In this case, the base of the first (shallower) parabola becomes the approximate level at which a second (deeper, with its apex corresponding to Point-2 of the WW/Geo in the chart) parabola would come into completion of the KoD.

If you need to define a stop-loss, then consider 1.414-Fib extension of the WW/Geo's 1-2 Leg as a safe zone.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
vladsim 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thank for the lesson, keep more coming for us to learn.
+2 Reply
iznogood
a year ago
Hi David, can you give us some Fibonacci examples between these legs (1-2, 2-3 and 3-4) and/or how we can use them for entries and SL?
+2 Reply
danndc
a year ago
so are you going long or short? i always follow your trades but you usually go short once it makes 5' aiming for 1-4 line
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO danndc
a year ago
Hello @danndc,

LOL. You are so right. I usually short Forex, simply because it's most drastic a fall.

D.
+4 Reply
danndc 4xForecaster
a year ago
thanks for answering, so are you telling me i'd better wait for 5' to go short?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO danndc
a year ago
@danndc,

Depending on your funds, risk tolerance and trader style, you could wait for a 5' or wait for a retesting of 5.

I would personally wait for TG-Hi and place a SL above TG-Hix, going along with the Predictive/Forecasting Model.

David
+2 Reply
Hi David, I find this interesting. It would seem that this pattern can fit multiple EW counts conclusions with your application and modifications.

I have my own analysis and trade going, based on other disciplines, but I'd like you to check out the targets and my EW count, as well as other cues I learned from Constance Brown (great suggestion, her 'Fibonacci Analysis', 'Mastering Elliott Wave' and 'Technical analysis for the trading professional' books are really good reads. That and the Cardwell RSI techniques).

I think we will most likely see a reaction at your tg HI zone, unless it turns out to be a larger impulse or double zigzag.
That would align with a 5'' point I guess, right?

snapshot


Looking forward to your feedback on the matter.
Have a great weekend.
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
This zigzag channel is basically your WW 5' projection of the 2-4 line, interesting. :)
The projection from point 1 would carry significant predictive value if it ends up fitting an extended advance wave 3 or extended C top. Am I on the right track?
Reply
06 JUL 2015 - Tech-Note:

Here is a chart that refers to the Geo's Off-Set Rule:


$USDollar - 4-Hour Chart:
snapshot

(Source/Analysis: "USDollar Draws Wolfe Wave; Eyes 1-4 Line"
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDOLLAR/YXcwqZzp/)


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
takefal 4xForecaster
a year ago
David the chart above is for the US Dollar and not for the Usd/Cad..
+1 Reply
07 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDCAD rallied to bullish target as forecast; 1.28144 still possible; Geo's OffSet Rule now targets 1.21432:

snapshot


$CAD
-----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Looks like a complete ABC zigzag up.
Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
a year ago
Is it also forming KOD?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO kmk.msp
a year ago
@kmk.msp - Bingo!


snapshot



Exactly.


David
+4 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Nice!
So, KoD, WW, potential EW zigzag completion part of a huge FLAT's B wave (inside the DXY's 4th).
Reply
danndc 4xForecaster
a year ago
you are great, are you going short now?
Reply
two wqual waves completed on daily
false break @ trendline
im short for 1.2635
sl 1.2783
Reply
iefan PRO
a year ago
19 JUL 2015

$USDCAD

Hi David. Price closed just above the 1.131 Fib ext, does this invalidate the KoD? Are you still expecting a decline in this pair? Any advice on how to trade this new structure high and what likely implications it has for price would be much appreciated. Kind regards iefan

snapshot
Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
a year ago
20 JUL 2015

Hello @iefan,

This is expanding to the lest frequent form (i.e.: 5-second), whereas a 1.618-Fib expansion is the level around which it appears to oscillate. I would expect that the decline would be limited to the level of Point-3, as dictated by the Geo's Off-Set Rule.

Additionally, I would look for a LARGER Geo being defined in this process, where the 1-2 Leg would offer an alternate ab-cd, as shown. If true, then the recent high would represent Point-3 of a larger system, and the level at which price would rest at the level of the smaller geometry's Point-3 would represent Point-4 of a larger Geo - This remains speculative, but I would expect price to have limited upside at this point, and to look for any decline as a temporary event, as a Point-5 in a larger Geo might seek its own definition at slightly higher highs, the level of which might become easy to project if the 1-3 Line of a larger Geo is truly what is unfolding at the moment:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
03 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
Despite #oil bears, $USDCAD may reverse at Geo's 5'' for 1.256 support per Geo OffSet Rule:

snapshot


$CAD #BOC #oilandgas
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
09 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDCAD hit 1.414 #fibonacci ext.; Faces prabable interim decline:

snapshot


$USD $CAD #BOC #oil #oilandgas #ukoil #usoil
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
17 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
-----------
With bullish double-bottom pending in $WTI, #loonie may roll toward forecast target:

snapshot


$CAD $usoil #oilandgas $brent
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+7 Reply
17 FEB 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:


$USDCAD broke 1.311; Opens floor to 1.256 as limited by Geo's Off-Set Rule #3:

snapshot


$USD $CAD #Fed #BOC | 4xforecaster


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
ccake28 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David... Any further update for this USDCAD? Thank you :)
Reply
19 OCT 2015 - 19 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

$USDCAD has rallied into a corrective geometry, with limited upside potential. Close scrutiny of recent price action reveals that a combination of structural tops, channel-top and Predictive/Forecasting top vaue ("TG-Hi") may be converging to herald a probable reversal.

Following M15 Chart calls for imminent overhead resistance:
1 - Predictive/Forecasting Model defines 1.30522 as probable level of resistance.;
2 - Channel offers its own dynamic resistance with up-sloping upper border as shown;
3 - Model's value falls in line with recent R/S area:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
ADDENDUM - Following is the H1 chart, putting all of these technical elements in the broader context:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
ccake28 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thanks so much David. Your work and analysis are genius yet you are so generous in sharing them!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ccake28
a year ago
Thank you for saying that - Much appreciated.

David
+2 Reply
Heelfan23 PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hello David, I hope all is well!! Just asking a quick opinion. I have this pair possibly completing a ABCD move just below 1.33. What are your thoughts on a possible reversal at that point?
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Heelfan23
a year ago
Very high - I just wrote a new thread for this one:

https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#HdxRFUvVWTjG9b6T


David
+2 Reply
30 OCT 2015 - Tech-Note:


The following is a cut/paste commentary going on in the $GBPCAD chart - Since it involves the #loonie, I thought it might be pertinent to share this analysis here as well:

================
Yes, @ xxx , @ xxx - Also, I often imagine majors representing the ANVIL, and the base currency (here, the $USD of the major), representing the HAMMER - Not sure if this analogy works for you, but it really is the shape of the $USDCAD that will act as the MOLD from which to CAST all other subservient $CAD crosses.

Let's take a look at what's going on in the $USDCAD, just to illustrate what might (just might) be going on in the $GBPCAD:

First, here is a nascent Geo/WW (BLACK):
snapshot


However, if you take a few steps back, you might also recognize the encompassing of a larger nascent Geo (BLUE):
snapshot


Also, notice that the Predictive/Forecasting Model did call TWO targets, a first one just hit, and and second one floating above at 1.33352 - This is worth keeping n mind, since the method here is to let the Model define a target, then turn to the geometry to explain a probable mechanism of access to these sometimes distant targets.

Now, in relation to the $GBPCAD, there may be a "sense" that more consolidation might be going on. And this is likely that this would occur at this time, simply because the HAMMER is currently shaping up a lower low in the larger Geo.

Of course, this is all probability, but what else do we have, except looking back, before everything is done and said, right?

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
=================

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
02 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price continues to rally towards combined Point-4 of each geometries:

snapshot


David Alcindor
+5 Reply
n0time PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hello awesome analysis :) any update for USDCAD ?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO n0time
11 months ago
Hi-prob reversal at 1.42406.

David
+1 Reply
ccake28 4xForecaster
11 months ago
Hi David, any further analysis on this usdcad pair? :)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ccake28
11 months ago
Watch for a high-probability reversal at 1.42406.

David
+1 Reply
ccake28 4xForecaster
11 months ago
Thanks so much David. U r the best of the best:)
Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
10 months ago
Hi David. Any chance you could share your thoughts, or a Weekly chart for this pair. Many thanks. Iefan
Reply
kmk.msp
11 months ago
Hi David,
USDCAD has reversed from point 5' and may target point 6

USDCAD

kmk.msp
+1 Reply
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