USDCAD-alternate count WxYxZ correction

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
1442 15 21
This pair is in ugly consolidation for two weeks with very low volatility . We know it: after a period of low volatility follows a period of STRONG volatility .

I have discarded the expanded flat scenario because of the choppy and overlapping price action.

Price is consuming time and that reminds me a triangle.

Thats what i'm considering seriously this alternate count: wxyxz correction with a triangle for X appears to be finishing.

We see price is at the E point of the triangle so its going to exploit very soon. Im opening short positions now because it could be too late tomorrow.

D1 chart count:



This is just and idea, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Most of this setups are for backtesting.
Always do your own analysis before opening a trade.
Any respectful and constructive ideas are welcome (agree or disagree).

Thanks for the analysis, see the same bearish scenario, First, this pair over bought, second: i see negative divergent on both day and weekly time frame...wish all good luck.
A view of the past ?
CAD Consolidation
Hi there, I'm a newbie trader and I've been following your ideas for a while. Just wondering what are your thoughts on a potential increasing pennant?
Hello, pennants works better on the beginning of strong rallies (usually wave 3). This means the pole is "straight" and not choppy, sideways as here. For a pennant to be valid the projection should be valid also, in this case the projection is too high and also unlikely. We are at final stages of the rally. The price actions is screaming a correction to the downside here.

+2 Reply
Interesting theory. What are your thoughts on this:-

"The only time wave X of a corrective combination can make a new price extreme is when wave W is a flat correction. If wave W is a zigzag, then wave X cannot make a new price extreme."?

Regards, D.
+1 Reply
FullTimeTrader tradersixsixty6
Hello, thanks for your question, there are some corrections not seen very common. This community is just for that purpose: taking other views in consideration. I have made some research and found this on EWI's FAQS.
"Q. Can wave X go beyond the start wave W in any corrective wave?
Can wave X go beyond the start wave W in any corrective wave?

A. In a combination, wave X can go beyond the start of wave W, but not in a double or triple zigzag. "
+1 Reply
tradersixsixty6 FullTimeTrader
Hello, thanks for your reply. Yes I agree completely, its always good to look at a range of ideas, particularly with complicated corrections. The quote I printed was from an email sent to me by my old Elliott Wave mentor Jeff Kennedy of EWI, after I had quizzed him about a particularly difficult count a while ago, so I was interested to hear your thoughts.

Keep up the great work.

Double bottom for oil as I'm expecting is supported by this view. 53 max target and fall!
FullTimeTrader Yahia.Awes
Im already short with targets shown on chart, next week will be decisive. Regards.
What you think about this I am sure you wont agree.....

Hello, i like harmonics also but you are anticipating too much. The rule are defined for trading the D leg of the pattern. The C leg could have many extensions 1.27, 1.414 and even spike the 1.61. So its a wide range of possibilites right now. Once the C leg is complete the market will tell if price can reach the D leg and fill the cypher pattern. We are followers, not predictors of the market. Regards.
+1 Reply
FXROB FullTimeTrader
you have right I agree but this is only predictions to watch the level 1.33030 to 1.34230 .
Dany_1990 FullTimeTrader
Great Explanation about harmonics! I did the same mistakes, Anticipating too much will make the trader upset when pattern goes wrong. Thanks
usdcad could easily hit those levels. but iam for 1.27004 and 1.23766. strong bearish move could be in the cards.
FullTimeTrader griffin1989
Yes, this targets are short term but price can easily reach even 1.200 (previous wave 4). Regards.
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