DAILY- This pair was stuck in a range for approximately four months since the start of 2015. Price broke through this range in the form of an ABCD Fibonacci play to induce a potential reversal to the downside. As a result a potential mid/long-term target will be point D, at the -27% fib level, ~1.1724.
For further confluence, the Moving Averages in use are converging, thus indicating a probable crossover to the downside.
H4 - There has been a break and retest of the counter , which acted as a for price from point B to C. What is occurring now is the continuation of the break of the counter .
H2- This two hour timeframe shows further confluence of the sellers taking control, because price has broken through the 200MA.
Currently price is sitting on the -27% fib which has been drawn on the 2 hour timeframe. The next potential move could be a retest of the previous low of 1.2365, which is the 0% fib level, also confluent with a retest of the 200MA as well as a third touch of the . This price level could be a good level to go short if price action does seem appropriate. Remember, the market can change direction in a flash, therefore it is best to see what price does in order to confirm the bias, rather than second guessing.
The next short-term target is the -61.8% fib (H2), which is also confluent with previous
On the other hand, in the short term if price does break counter (H2), then it may be better to wait for further confirmation of a direction before entering short or long.