USDCAD Update: Looking For A Bottom? Not Yet!

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
429 0 8
USDCAD: Are We There Yet? Are We There Yet? No! We Have Not Reached The Bottom Yet!

Like a child sitting in a car on a long ride to grandma's house, I keep getting asked, "Are we there yet?". Don't worry! I will tell you when we are there! Or at least when I think we are there. It isn't an easy thing to know when a trend has ended. Especially such a strong trend as USDCAD             has been in for months now. Remember, don't catch a falling knife!

Here's the last chart I posted on USDCAD             4 days ago:

Look at the main chart above. You will now see that prices are dropping right into my first critical zone just as I expected it would. So for all you who already bought thinking you were catching the bottom? You did nothing but catch a falling knife! For those of you who are following some "break and buy" strategy? You've no doubt been caught several times over already. A "break and buy" strategy cannot tell you the bottom is in. In a down trend such as this, it can "break" several times and return to the trend. Nothing really can tell you with 100% certainty that a low is in but price action is the best answer. Nothing else comes close.

So here in my chart, I am analyzing possible price action and in so doing, I know what to look for. If it happens as I think it should, then I know with higher degree of probability that I am on the right course.

Compare that to the chart I posted 4 days ago. You can see that prices have now moved right down to my first "critical zone" as I expected it would. When strong trends (as there is no doubt this USDCAD             trend is), there are usually 2 ways that they will end. One is a H&S pattern. The other is an ending diagonal . Yes, there are other ways but theses are the most common. And 4 days ago, I could only guess if there was going to be an ending diagonal . But now it has become more clear. There is an ED forming. But ED's of strong trends end pretty violently. As in there should be one more STRONG push down and then that's it. That hasn't happened yet. I'm waiting for that to happen. It doesn't always happen. But often does.

I have a much more detailed analysis on USDCAD             and where it may end available on my website (subscription required). Go here to subscribe to get it and many other detailed analysis: http://goo.gl/qRNGsF

Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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