Like a child sitting in a car on a long ride to grandma's house, I keep getting asked, "Are we there yet?". Don't worry! I will tell you when we are there! Or at least when I think we are there. It isn't an easy thing to know when a trend has ended. Especially such a strong trend as USDCAD has been in for months now. Remember, don't catch a falling knife!
Here's the last chart I posted on USDCAD 4 days ago:
Look at the main chart above. You will now see that prices are dropping right into my first critical zone just as I expected it would. So for all you who already bought thinking you were catching the bottom? You did nothing but catch a falling knife! For those of you who are following some "break and buy" strategy? You've no doubt been caught several times over already. A "break and buy" strategy cannot tell you the bottom is in. In a down trend such as this, it can "break" several times and return to the trend. Nothing really can tell you with 100% certainty that a low is in but price action is the best answer. Nothing else comes close.
So here in my chart, I am analyzing possible price action and in so doing, I know what to look for. If it happens as I think it should, then I know with higher degree of probability that I am on the right course.
Compare that to the chart I posted 4 days ago. You can see that prices have now moved right down to my first "critical zone" as I expected it would. When strong trends (as there is no doubt this USDCAD trend is), there are usually 2 ways that they will end. One is a pattern. The other is an . Yes, there are other ways but theses are the most common. And 4 days ago, I could only guess if there was going to be an . But now it has become more clear. There is an ED forming. But ED's of strong trends end pretty violently. As in there should be one more STRONG push down and then that's it. That hasn't happened yet. I'm waiting for that to happen. It doesn't always happen. But often does.
I have a much more detailed analysis on USDCAD and where it may end available on my website (subscription required). Go here to subscribe to get it and many other detailed analysis: http://goo.gl/qRNGsF
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