ICmarkets

USD/CAD We are looking for the 1.08 to break south

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
0
4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Weekly timeframe: a strong push up to weekly supply at 1.09592-1.08133 was seen. Price still remains capped between the aforementioned weekly supply area and weekly demand below at 1.05715-1.07008. If we see a break of the weekly supply area, things will start to get very interesting as we believe the profit potential to the upside is huge.

• Daily timeframe: Price is now seen trading around an obvious daily S/R flip level at 1.08277, and to anyone who does not follow above the daily timeframe, all this is, is the area around the base of the aforementioned weekly supply area above. A break above this daily S/R flip level could see prices testing the upper daily supply area at 1.09592-1.09156, which is of course very deep within weekly supply.

The market opened at 1.08154, price consolidated for a little while then made a run to retest the round number 1.08. We still do not expect price to fully react bullishly off of this round number, instead, we expect a break south down to at least the 4hr decision-point area at 1.07546-1.07680. As long as price remains trading between the 4hr decision-point area at 1.08250-1.08123 and the round number, our analysis may still be correct. Our reasoning behind a break of the round number is simply because we are trading into some heavy higher-timeframe supply (See above for the levels), so lower prices are naturally expected to be seen soon.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the decision-point area (1.07546-1.07680). We have set a pending buy order here as this remains an important area where pro money buyers likely made the decision to break the round number above at 1.08000. We are not expecting a massive reaction here, more a small bounce which we will quickly take advantage of, as we are fully aware that we’re currently trading around higher-timeframe supply at the moment (Weekly: 1.09592-1.08133 Daily S/R flip level: 1.08277).
• P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the round number 1.07000 at 1.07047. The reason a P.A confirmation buy order was set here is simply because a pending buy order would be too risky as (on this timeframe) there is no logical area for a stop loss order to be placed.

• No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1.07706 (SL: 1.07514 TP: Dependent on price approach) P.A.C: 1.07047 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders seen within the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders seen within the current market environment.

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