EverythingForex

USDCAD: Wave 4 Is Well Underway....When Will It End?

FX_IDC:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
350 5 11
Lots of chopping movements and swings. That is a sure sign of a corrective wave. According to my wave count, this pair has recently ended wave 3 of the larger 5 wave advance and is now working it's way down in a wave 4 retracement.
snapshot

Within this wave 4, what you are seeing in the main chart is a POTENTIAL bullish crab that I am speculating may mark the end of the wave 4 retracement. By my wave count, prices cannot exceed 1.25831 or else it will have entered into the price territory of wave 1. Which of course isn't allowed or else the count will be invalidated. Notice that the PRZ of the crab also ends right near that point and also right around a MAJOR SR Structure. This MAJOR SR Structure is also the 50% retracement of wave 3.

Within this wave 4, the a leg is possibly forming a expanding triangle pattern that as of this posting, is just about finished which should mark the end of the a wave of the abc correction and we should see a b wave back up into the upper trendline of this triangle before the wave c makes it's way down to complete the crab and end wave 4.

MY TRADING PLAN
Unfortunately, I missed the beginning of this wave 4 on an entry via a bat pattern I had posted about earlier (see Related Ideas: "USDCAD: Pick-A-Bat; 2 POTENTIAL Bearish Bats At Structure"). The entry was missed by only a few pips. Oh, well. Sometimes that happens. If I had got it, it would've been a great trade. So now I am looking for another entry to catch some pips on this wave 4 down. Likely, I will look for signs of the wave b of the abc correction to end and try to catch wave c down. Then of course, the big prize will be to catch the beginning of the wave 5 up.

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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Hey! Thanks a lot for your analyses and for helping me out with the pattern questions the other day. I've been drawing some other patterns quite randomly, for instance a bullish bat on USDCAD ending up at 1.29ish. Any thoughts on that (if I by chance got that right)?
snapshot
Reply
You're welcome. As for the bat, it's hard for me to tell from the picture you attached because I can't enlarge it and I can't see the points clearly. But from what I could make out, it looks correct. But you should always consider any pattern you find in the context of what is happening in the market and also the bigger picture. This is a way you can weed out patterns that may not work out and increase winning %. Of course, you can just do pure pattern trading and try to take advantage of the purported winning % of the patterns themselves but that would require you to trade every pattern you find in order to end up with the proper winning %'s. And that would require a pretty large bankroll. If you don't take every pattern you find, then you must have some sort of method to qualify each pattern you see. GL!
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I also want to add that should wave 4 make it all the way back down to the MAJOR SR Structure, that will also be a GREAT structure "resistance-turns-support" trade!
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Thanks alot , as always G8 analysis . you the D man :)
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You're welcome!
Reply
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