ac7777
Short

USDCAD Decline is Approaching

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
119 14 2
The rise in the USD/CAD             since July 2011 has been wave C of an ABC zigzag-type correction.

The wave B was a triangle that gave rise to the majority of the rally of wave C, up until wave 3. The 5th wave has already developed 5 component waves, and even the 5th extended component wave appears to be complete with 5 subwaves.

RSI divergence between the 3rd and 5th waves reflects that the rally is weakening and may be done soon. Look for an impulsive (5-wave) decline followed by a partial 3-wave retracement as a potential short entry point.

The correction will be retraced more than 100%, as the primary long-term trend in USD/CAD             is down.
ac7777
a year ago
Studying the wave structure that has developed over the last day, it appears that a corrective triangle pattern has formed that may push price down to the 1.131 level. This view is contingent upon price not going above 1.38191 prior to this occurring.
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This decline would represent between 61.8 and 78.6% retracement of the rally from the points labeled (4) and (5) in the chart above. From this, it may be inferred that the rally from points (4) to (5) is only the first wave of an additional extended 5th wave sequence within the 5th wave of this greater C wave. That is to say that after the presumed correction to 1.131 completes a 2nd wave down, there will be another 3rd wave up, 4th wave down and 5th wave up before the impulsive pattern ends.

Assuming so, and using the distance from (4) to (5), which could be relabeled as 'i', and the hypothesized retracement (wave 'ii') as the rough basis for projecting the ultimate peak of the extended 5th wave sequence, it might suggest a level of around 1.50000.
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ac7777 ac7777
a year ago
Correction: 1.131 should read 1.313
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ac7777 ac7777
a year ago
As price has exceeded 1.38191 since my earlier writing, I will put the idea of an imminent decline to 1.313 on hold for the moment. However, as the wave which exceeded that level is an 'E' wave, and 'E' waves are capable of developing as triangles, and triangles are not considered to end at their high or low extremes but rather at the level where they form their final focal point, I may take up this view again if it forms a triangle which ends at or under 1.38191 and a downward thrust then begins.
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ac7777
a year ago
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from all analyst just you who have the same thought as i did. it's been making zigzag correction. nice to read yours. bravo!
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ac7777 SpaghetiBolognese
a year ago
Very good, and thank you.
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ac7777
a year ago
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ac7777 ac7777
a year ago
After a lengthy wave 'a' and 'b' (which were relabeled today, shifted more to the right) a wave 'c' struck 1.39675, almost touching a 78.6% retracement of the impulsive wave 'i' decline. Wave 'b' did finally end as a triangle which yielded a thrust measurement implying a rise to just that level.

After that, we see what looks like an initial impulsive wave down followed by a 50% correction. The third and fifth waves should extend significantly further down to create a larger degree first wave before being partially retraced in a larger degree second wave, and so on, if the count is correct thus far.
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ac7777
a year ago
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ac7777 ac7777
a year ago
Ultimately, wave ii retraced nearly the full length of wave i, up to 1.39934 but could not exceed it. Since that high, an impulsive wave down has unfolded. This will be the first small wave of wave iii down. Notice above that the third wave of it is shorter than the first wave. This suggests that the fifth wave will not be longer than the third wave, as a third wave cannot be the shortest of waves 1,3 and 5 in an impulsive sequence. It is no coincidence then that the fourth wave triangle is presenting a thrust measurement which implies a distance for the fifth wave to allow it to be shorter than the third. That would limit the fifth wave to about 1.39144. At that point, there should be a corrective rally in three waves to retrace a portion of wave ii. 38.2 to 50% is a typical range of retracement for third waves and their component waves.
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SpaghetiBolognese ac7777
a year ago
I'm with you.
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ac7777 ac7777
a year ago
As expected, price has made a sharp upward reversal just shy of the lower limit shown in the chart above.

Now, I suspect price may retrace to around 38.2 to 50% of this wave (i), perhaps between 1.3945 - 1.3955, before turning down in wave (iii) of iii.
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ac7777
a year ago
I want to add, as a warning, that there is a chance this could be a bullish triangle -- a final move to thrust higher. It appears possible given the lower highs and higher lows since the initial impulsive thrust down from 1.40018. Consider the possibility and protect your positions as appropriate.
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ac7777
9 months ago
The drop from 1.46897 appears to be only corrective. I estimate a thrust down into the 1.32 area for now.
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