This is an update for my previous usdcad idea tradingview.com/v/s9Gj6Qtm/ but this is not a long usdcad idea, but more of a short (FX) commodities idea (look below for more charts).
I wrote in my previous usdcad idea "Alt. view would be that this 5 waves advance is wave A in a 3 legged C wave." and it looks like this is turning out to be the case.
We reached the min target at 1.0900 and have now put in a long legged doji at the 61.8% fib. As it stays above this weeks low, we should see new highs towards 1.16-17.
This is in line with me view that commodities and FX commodities are about to start another decline for new major lows. Check out my other ideas about gold, nzd, aud and oil.
update, looks like there is more downside to come.
muratsoydan
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Great Work, I am in. The only problem is that UsdCad long is a very crowded trade, maybe last fall frustrate traders and eliminate the population. Otherwise there is no change in the bullish outlook.
traderWgun
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Ture, basically I think the next decline in aud nzd & cad will complete a major cycle, so it may be crowded, but I don't think it's crowded. DailyFX:s SSI showed that there is 1.73 longs for ever short,
and according to them, the ratio has to be >2.0 longs for every short for the trade to be "crowded" twitter.com/CVecchioFX/status/453867095114018816/photo/1
Good luck!
muratsoydan
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Hi, I am also following the SSI index, but I think the more important thing is that the weekly change in Longs or Shorts, because overall posititioning does not change quickly, but if weekly change falls dramatically it is a good time to take a position. In this sense Usd/Cad longs increased %7.1, and it is not low. By the way I am also waiting for a decline in NzdUsd, but it seems it will go upside more before a downfall. Keep up the good work.
update, looks like there is more downside to come.