DayFarrell
Short

USDCAD (TESTING STRATEGY)

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
I tested some aspects of this strategy on the NZDUSD             pair, and it went really well. i'm now testing it out on another pair to see if it's a pair specific strategy or overall.
Even though i consider this trade a strategy test, or any other test, the first move is always something that is most probable above all others, i would trade this first move, but i'd wait for candle confirmation. Since it's the weekend i'm pretty sure price will not be consistent with Friday's close, therefore i'd determine based on where the price starts and try to get in on a smaller wave outline in yellow with my stops the same place. the overall success on this move still depends on whether the price goes up or down, but i have a downward bias, but i still see signs of up. i chose down because of another EMA strategy i'm testing within this trade also, i use a 76 High {High when the price is trending down, and Low when the price is trending up} EMA to determine when price is overbought or oversold. If price pierce my EMA i usually start looking for a move lower. this rule cannot be applied on an overall pair, because there are moments when price trends sideways, and during such time EMA 76 fluctuate between LOW and HIGH, it has to be used on a clear trend. The price is going through a trend change so i'm trading on bears.
I use a few types of EMA, i use regular fibonacci EMA's, and Percentile Fibonacci EMA, (i will explain some other time). the 76 is a combination of all.
a simple explanation of my set-up: red horizontal lines are ranges and some can be targets, the blue horizontal lines are possible reversal points,(which are only associated with the first move) red trend lines are price action and the yellow trend lines represent price action also. I HAVE NOT DRAWN THE TRENDING WITH REGARDS FOR TIME ONLY PRICE. though it can be done, its not necessary.
i use the 4 hour chart because this pair don't really have a large price range.
Economically this is not the best week for this pair, which i think is better for my expectation.
I WILL POST A FEW TRADES LATER THIS EVENING, i had a bad GBPUSD             trade and i'm reviewing what i did wrong. I call it bad not because of money lost, but usually i can always predict price action whether bulls or bears on a first move, but it went against my plan. Some will say accept loss and move on because it's apart of the business, which i accept, but i'm not going to make a prediction which went wrong and not recheck to see where my analysis was premature.
HAVE A GREAT AND SUCCESSFUL WEEK!!!
TELL ME WHAT YOU THINK, I'D APPRECIATE IT, PLEASE LEAVE A COMMENT :)
Bulldee
2 years ago
It is neither an ascending nor a descending triangle so the price is 50% in either directions ! On the one minute time frame (1m) the pair at close plunged deep, usually on the next opening session it keeps its previous direction and than goes opposite ! God knows, how the hell this damn thing moves...
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DayFarrell Bulldee
2 years ago
oh you're referring to when the price close on fridays, yes i always notice that same price movement, in the same direction and reverse, your right, but i'm not sur if its a consistent thing, i never checked. have you?
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DayFarrell
2 years ago
snapshot

Black arrows are possible reversal points,
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DayFarrell
2 years ago
so far price is still yet to go in the desired direction, but i haven't given up on this pair as yet, the AUDUSD pair i post works more harmonic with the strategy, so maybe it's more accurate on the NZD, and AUD pair, you can have a view of both from the links on this page. AUDUSD OVERALL SHORT (TESTING) and NZDUSD Testing strategy Again. working on some other pairs.
Regarding the GBPUSD, i don't think it's the best pair to trade pullbacks now, i see possibility of draw down all the way to 1.55
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DayFarrell
2 years ago
this went terribly wrong for me, it's back to the drawing board, to review what caused the inconsistency. it appears my moves are right, just the wrong direction, but that's worst that it being the other way around.
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