USDCAD - What I'm watching

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
178 4 1
It's not the most exciting pair to trade, but soon it should provide a great opportunity to go long. The resistance at 1.0510 is the completion of a bearish Gartley formation, which held multiple tests to try and break higher, and price is now hovering near support at 1.0460.

There are four areas to watch to establish/add long positions if we see continued USD weakness:

1) 1.04 should provide strong support if we see it, and will be where I start going long the pair. The level is previous resistance which has held multiple tests as support, and I am not expecting price to fall much below this level, if at all. The 100 SMA , 55 EMA , and 55 SMA will be nearby, too (currently 1.0389, 1.0391, and 1.0381).

2) If we see sustained USD weakness and price falls below 1.04, the recent supporting trendline will be the next area to watch, likely to be around the 1.0360/70 area.

3) While not likely to be tested, the last line of support for the pair is the main supporting trendline that dates back to September of 2012. A daily close below there would be needed for me to close out my longs and take the loss.

4) Of course, there is always the possibility that we see big USD strength enter the markets, causing the pair to break through resistance at 1.0510. If this happens, I will go long on that break, when confirmed.
I don't understand the dichotomy. . . You present a great looking Gartley pattern and then talk about all the reasons and places you can go long ?
ElysiumFX dojitrader
For anyone who missed a short entry up near 1.05, I wasn't going to suggest going short now. I'm a long-term CAD bear, and am watching for places to go long. I put the Gartley on the chart to help show why I am expecting a pullback, but I don't expect to see sustained CAD strength.
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