Short

# QUICK ANALYSIS: USDCAD: Wave (iii) Has Finished. Wave (iv) Now.

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Given the recent bearish price action, it's necessary to re-analyze this pair and make sense of what is happening. I have re-analyzed and had to reconfigure my wave counts to better reflect the recent price action. In the chart above, you can see that prices have clearly broken through the upward trending trading channel this pair has been in lately. But what does this signify? A trend change? False break? Let's see....

What you are seeing in the chart above is that the wave (iv) has started and that wave (a) and wave (b) of that inital wave (iv) retracement has possibly completed. And now, we are seeing wave (c) unfolding. There is a POTENTIAL bullish bat pattern that could be marking the wave (c) ending at 1.29942. This point could mean the end of wave (iv) OR the end of just the initial abc zigzag of wave (iv) and that the bat completion could only be marking the end of only the FIRST part of a more complex wave (iv) correction. Only time will tell us which it is. But the point is that if/when prices reach this bullish bat completion, we must be very aware of what price action will be telling us.

OVERVIEW - Daily Chart: Where Will Wave (iv) End? New Wave Count and POTENTIAL Bullish Shark
By my wave count, this pair is in its' final wave (5) and within that wave (5), it has just finished its' wave ( iii             ). Now, it is just beginning its' wave (iv) retrace and could be targeting the wave (i) top @ 1.25627. Now, of course, the wave (iv) SHOULD end above that point and not go below it. I have drawn a POTENTIAL bullish shark pattern that wold complete at 1.25660 which would be just above the wave (i) end point. But this DOES NOT mean that wave (iv) WILL get to that point! But just gives a good idea about where wave (iv) might be headed.

I am already SHORT as of the trend line break as I am now expecting that this pair will trade down in a wave (iv). This move down is ONLY a retracement and NOT a trend change as I am still expecting that there will be a wave (v) back up into new highs to finish off the major trend wave (5). So I will be watching for signs of a bullish reversal back up. Possibly at the completion of the POTENTIAL bullish bat above. But also remaining aware that prices could still go down more and possible as far as the ending of the wave (i) as seen on the DAILY chart above.

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this is what i saw
fxnoob1985
Good! That's a nice Gartley and I hope you took a nice profit from it.
EverythingForex
no i was not able to take any profit. closed the trade in a loss! actually i was away from my computer in the morning when i took this trade and the audusd trade that you had posted. well looks like you also didnot had a good day. cheers
fxnoob1985
yeah, today was not a great day. still made a good profit off the USDJPY trade but other than that. was pretty much up and down all day. Oh well, that's how it goes!
Look at the weekly... last week bearish pin bar + daily pin bar... likely to go lower...
dionvuletich
Yeah, I've seen the pinbars but I don't trade pinbars. In fact, when I see a pinbar (especially the first pnibar) I actually will think prices will go higher past the initial pinbar. I will actually trade against the pinbar! Usually, upon the 3rd pinbar, then prices will respect that pinbar and reverse. So, what I would look for is that prices will go down somewhat according to my post above, then reverse back up into new highs (wave (v)) and put in another pinbar. If it does that, then that's the pinbar I'd go with. GL!
EverythingForex
I don't trade pin bars either but if it's a pin bar confirming a weekly butterfly and daily butterfly patterns clustering at the same level then yes I take it as confirmation only, I'm already short usdcad from 1.3325 so if it breaks lower then great - if not then there's always next time
dionvuletich
True. But regardless of why, we're both short on this pair now. It's just a matter of disagreement on how far down it will go. GL!
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