QUICK ANALYSIS: USDCAD: Wave (iii) Has Finished. Wave (iv) Now.

Given the recent bearish price action, it's necessary to re-analyze this pair and make sense of what is happening. I have re-analyzed and had to reconfigure my wave counts to better reflect the recent price action. In the chart above, you can see that prices have clearly broken through the upward trending trading channel this pair has been in lately. But what does this signify? A trend change? False break? Let's see....

What you are seeing in the chart above is that the wave (iv) has started and that wave (a) and wave (b) of that inital wave (iv) retracement has possibly completed. And now, we are seeing wave (c) unfolding. There is a POTENTIAL bullish bat pattern that could be marking the wave (c) ending at 1.29942. This point could mean the end of wave (iv) OR the end of just the initial abc zigzag of wave (iv) and that the bat completion could only be marking the end of only the FIRST part of a more complex wave (iv) correction. Only time will tell us which it is. But the point is that if/when prices reach this bullish bat completion, we must be very aware of what price action will be telling us.

OVERVIEW - Daily Chart: Where Will Wave (iv) End? New Wave Count and POTENTIAL Bullish Shark
By my wave count, this pair is in its' final wave (5) and within that wave (5), it has just finished its' wave (iii). Now, it is just beginning its' wave (iv) retrace and could be targeting the wave (i) top @ 1.25627. Now, of course, the wave (iv) SHOULD end above that point and not go below it. I have drawn a POTENTIAL bullish shark pattern that wold complete at 1.25660 which would be just above the wave (i) end point. But this DOES NOT mean that wave (iv) WILL get to that point! But just gives a good idea about where wave (iv) might be headed.

MY TRADE PLAN
I am already SHORT as of the trend line break as I am now expecting that this pair will trade down in a wave (iv). This move down is ONLY a retracement and NOT a trend change as I am still expecting that there will be a wave (v) back up into new highs to finish off the major trend wave (5). So I will be watching for signs of a bullish reversal back up. Possibly at the completion of the POTENTIAL bullish bat above. But also remaining aware that prices could still go down more and possible as far as the ending of the wave (i) as seen on the DAILY chart above.

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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