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Last trading day of August USDCAD Analysis

Long
FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Japan released industrial production MoM for July. Data came in at better than expected 1.3% against the previous fact of -3.3% and ahead of the forecast of 0.3%.

German Retail sales were revised to the downside from 3.5% to 3.0% and a worse than expected reading came in today at -2.1% MoM for July.

At 12:30 GMT the United States and Canada will release reports. The United States will release Core Personal Consumption Expenditure which is a great way to measure inflation. Thus far it has remained at a steady 0.2% since the release on May 31st of this year and the forecast has risen for the first time to 0.3%.

While Canada will release their GDP. MoM the last 3 releases were better than expected, while still showing a decline, it's been a lot more gradual than expected.

Technically looking at USDCAD on a 4HTF, the price is currently in the middle of the 50% FIbo retracement. The price almost reached the 61.8 % Fibo level several times in August.

The pair has been trading in a flat most of August, between 38.2 and 61.8 Fibo levels.

Next week on Wednesday September 4th, BoC will make a decision on Interest Rate thats currently at 1.75% last changed from 1.5% in October of 2018.
Signs of global economic slowdown may guide the BoC to lower their interest rate. In recent days both Trump and China have become more calm and investors have their fingers crossed that a deal may be in the coming.

But we all know that nothing lately is promised and we want to advise you to stay cautious.
Considering a move to the upside, our first target area will be at 1.33552, which is our 61.8 FIbo and after that there is a strong area of resistance in the area of 1.34281.
In case there are further global tensions, the dollar could move to the downside with target areas first at 1.32257 (38.2% Fibo) and after that 1.31455 (23.6% Fibo).
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