The pair looks like the downside maybe exhausted and the current structure it's developing may turn out to be an ending diagonal and if so this is the end of the recent down move and we will start another lag to the upside.
Looks reasonable. And I think you are correct in that the bounce may only be to the top trendline. There is a lot of downside pressure on this pair. It will depend on whether OIL and GOLD are making temporary tops.