Trend: The pair has been in a primary downtrend for the last 3,5 year.
Technicals: The yelllow circled area is the area of interest, a 500 pips range from where I expect the pair to start declining from the lower parts of the circle. The current price movement low in the channel are done with less upward momentum than earlier expericenced in the two channels. This might indicate that a bearish move are imminient, this is also in accordance with the primary trend.
Fundamentals: Watch the oil price closely for upward movement that will strengthen the CAD. Expectancy of rate cuts and recession from the US as well.