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REPOST: ANALYSIS: USDCAD: VERY Bullish But...Why NOT To Be LONG

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
328 3 10
VERY Bullish but don't be LONG? Well, if that's not a contradiction you might say, you don't know what is then! Let me also say that IF you are already LONG this pair from much earlier in this pairs LONG run so far, I'd hold those positions and ride out the retrace that is coming or here now. Your patience will be rewarded! No need to go SHORT. But there is a good shorting opportunity appearing now. But it is going to be a choppy ride though. Let me explain why.

CURRENT SIT-REP
For those not in or had been in the military, "sit-rep" means "situational report" (and no, I'm not a military guy. I just watch too many movies! I prefer LOVE over WAR!). Anyway, to the point...this pair is now starting a wave iv retracement wave of the larger wave (v) after just finishing the wave iii             of the larger wave (v). There are also 2 harmonic patterns that I have identified that are part of this wave iv: a bullish cypher and a bullish shark. PA is now headed down in the CD leg of both patterns. Also, there is a small H&S pattern developing (or already developed) right at the top of the MAJOR Structure dating back 7 years ago. Although this H&S pattern maybe small, it occurs right with the MAJOR Structure so had added significance beyond just a H&S pattern. It is a signpost (along with both harmonic patterns ) that prices are being rejected right now at the structure level.

OVERVIEW (MONTHLY Chart)
To understand completely why I have assessed the current sit-rep the way I did, you must understand the bigger picture. To do so will also give you insight as to why I am (and have been for a while now) so BULLISH on this pair and that why I am saying there is yet A LOT more upside coming! Back almost a month ago, I published an analysis on this pair in which I warned that there was a big move up yet to come (see Related Ideas: "USDCAD: So, You Wanna Go SHORT? B4 You Do, You Should Know...") and that IF you wanted to go SHORT at that time, caution was warranted. In this MONTHLY chart, I again show the C&H pattern and also the wave count of the current impulse wave USDCAD             has been on and still is in. As you can see, there is yet to be the wave 4 and wave 5 of this impulse wave to come. We may now be starting the wave 4 retracement. Remember, this is a MONTHLY chart so these waves can last for MONTHS and moves can be significant in terms of pips.
snapshot

WEEKLY CHART
In this chart, you can see that my wave labeling shows that wave 3 (and the wave (v) of 3) has not ended yet.
snapshot
DAILY CHART - Closeup of Current PA and Wave Count
Notes on chart and self-explanatory
snapshot
4HR Chart - Wave Count of Just Completed Wave iii
snapshot

CONCLUSION
I am already LONG on this pair from the previous breakout at the 1.28000 level. I am holding on to this LONG position. However, I am also placing SHORT orders now expecting a wave iv retracement to have already begun. Keep in mind that if you do go SHORT here to catch the wave iv retracement wave, that this pair has A LOT of upside potential yet to come. The smart play here is to wait on this wave iv retrace to complete and look to go LONG if you haven't already or add more LONGS near the completion of this wave iv retracement wave.

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yoseph.ronald
a year ago
Very Good anylisis..
Reply
Neel_K PRO
a year ago
Very Detailed Analysis!
Reply
azhang24
a year ago
Great analysis!
Reply
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