Secondly, price broke out from the Upper median line. Of course, there is no such rule that price 'must or should' move higher on break out of the UML.
Then the rejection on break out (identified by the doji) is a sign of a retest of the break out from the median line, which also shows a confluence of a possible support at 1.2519/1.252.
Now, if price breaks this support and heads lower, it could mean a possible decline back to 1.2425, which is where the stops are and would signal the analysis invalidated. In such a case, we could then see a sharper decline possibly to the lower median line.
However, if the retest is successful at 1.2519, then no doubt we could see the first leg up to 1.2745 followed by 1.2816.