A clear reversal happened the end of 2015 with the dollar, bringing to an end the long term up trend. After a move up this high (2013 .99 - 2016 above 1.45 a natural retracement or consolidating is expected. I see both as an opportunity to take a long term (2 year) position in this buy buying puts on FXC two years out.
Technically on the monthly chart there is a clear trend line break (down) and a natural move to the bottom of the consolidation range to test the swing lows at 1.25 +/- is the clear initial target also getting us closer to those fibonacci retracement lines, though 1.20 would be a full 50% retracement. This would also put us below a 30 month moving average and that would change the overall direction to firmly down.
Thanks for a nice analysis. I agree with you. I also look such long term analyses. Not that many people do it here so good job! Best of luck for your trades mate!