ResonanceTrading

USDCAD long-term is SO bearish

Short
FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
As We all know nothing goes up/down in a straight line, and with all the bearish sentiment for Oil and CAD we are sure that the turning point is near. Of course, one of the most important rules is not to try to catch the turning point (TP) "do not catch a falling knife" *****So we are not saying to short USDCAD now******

In the monthly chart it is clear that since 2007 the pair has done a 5-3-5 correction "(a)-(b)-(c)" for the impulsive downward move that started in 2002 and lasted 5 years. and as a confirmation, that this price action is corrective, we can see it is moving within parallel lines. "impulsive waves do not move in parallel lines".
In addition, I highlighted a potential resistance box where we could see the turning point happening.

In the weekly chart, we present the RSI divergence, which is the best indication for exhaustion of a trend. Plus, the red box represent an area where a cluster of fibonacci extensions fall which would act as a great resistance for the TP.

Again, this analysis is in line with with our analysis for Oil which is almost finishing the bear trend.

*******AFTER THE TP******
Elliott Wave analysis and Cyclical analysis is not about predicting the future; its more about adjusting and benefiting before its too late. So we don't know the actual price path after the TP but we are sure that the price will go lower in at least 3 waves "which could be wave (x) (5-3-5) towards the lower trend line in the monthly view" or it could go impulsively down beyond the trend line


Happy trading :)

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