Divergences may trigger a serious correction
Picking in G10 space what is cheap what is expensive, we already found CAD has lost a lot of its value during last few months. Getting closer to FED decision on the other hand it looks like the extreme optimism and bullishness in USD started to diminish. Let's check if we have any warning signals on USDCAD.
Weekly:
- major bullish trend and bullish Ichimoku setup. However Price quickly got far above its equilibrium, should retest Kijun again.
- Heikin Ashi signals trend exhaustion! Candles print smaller bodies with now higher high in last 2 weeks. haDelta/SMA3 drifting lower, but more importantly it has had a huge bearish divergence developed between the two peaks!
- Price pattern is possibly forming a bearish wedge, actually we still trade close to its upper side
Daily:
- Ichimoku is bullish biased, there has been some loss of momentum as Kijun attracts price too often to make daily lows there. This fact makes Kijun Sen even more important this time. First support level to watch is 1,3150. Second one is 1,2950.
- Heikin Ashi candles clearly show undecision and noise. No higher highs, but no lower lows either, stuck in 1,3150-1,3315 range. For this reason haDelta/SMA3 also swings around zero line, right now it is trying to make a cross down.
This time the weekly chart is more talkative. There is clearly a tension inside. This tension can be released only if Price makes a correction or if it suddenly blows up and shows a return of real bullish momentum. All together I think CAD has suffered a lot against EUR as well, and anyway, the whole picture in USDCAD looks like a serious warning for correction.
Therefor I consider a short of 0,5-1 trade unit with an initial stop above recent weekly highs has quite a good expected risk/reward.
Please note again, this idea is still not a major stretgic bearish view, just a possible swing short, a counter trend trade. So please make sure you take risk accordingly%
Weekly:
- major bullish trend and bullish Ichimoku setup. However Price quickly got far above its equilibrium, should retest Kijun again.
- Heikin Ashi signals trend exhaustion! Candles print smaller bodies with now higher high in last 2 weeks. haDelta/SMA3 drifting lower, but more importantly it has had a huge bearish divergence developed between the two peaks!
- Price pattern is possibly forming a bearish wedge, actually we still trade close to its upper side
Daily:
- Ichimoku is bullish biased, there has been some loss of momentum as Kijun attracts price too often to make daily lows there. This fact makes Kijun Sen even more important this time. First support level to watch is 1,3150. Second one is 1,2950.
- Heikin Ashi candles clearly show undecision and noise. No higher highs, but no lower lows either, stuck in 1,3150-1,3315 range. For this reason haDelta/SMA3 also swings around zero line, right now it is trying to make a cross down.
This time the weekly chart is more talkative. There is clearly a tension inside. This tension can be released only if Price makes a correction or if it suddenly blows up and shows a return of real bullish momentum. All together I think CAD has suffered a lot against EUR as well, and anyway, the whole picture in USDCAD looks like a serious warning for correction.
Therefor I consider a short of 0,5-1 trade unit with an initial stop above recent weekly highs has quite a good expected risk/reward.
Please note again, this idea is still not a major stretgic bearish view, just a possible swing short, a counter trend trade. So please make sure you take risk accordingly%
