Fundamentally, market conditions have not changed too much despite the sell off in USD the last few weeks. Yes, data was disappointing, but in terms of U vs. C, these two items still remain:
1. Oil has yet to find a defined bottom. 2. Divergent policies banking between the USA and Canada.
Though, I do believe we maybe reaching the tail end of this uptrend, there is nothing fundamentally significant so suggest that we will not see the peaks again nor surpass it.
Technically speaking, moderate E. wave count suggests we are finishing wave 4 of a 5 wave impulsive. I was not sure how far we would fall in wave 4, but we have the following:
1. Ichimoku rejection 2. Fibo .382 rejection 3. Spinning top, RSI suggest majority of selling is complete
Certainly, we may drop further, but I believe the price will maintain its long course through this pitchfork. Should the fork break convincingly, that will be the strong bear confirm.
The ride back up will hopefully surpass peak 3. I do not believe it will hold at that price level for long, at which point begin looking for shorts.
Comment
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1.40 continues to be the resistance point on this upswing. A convincing break of this level is needed.