IvanLabrie
Short

USDCAD: Expanding the analysis

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
In this chart I'm adding an overlay of USDJPY             to show what I'm expecting to occur in the coming days/weeks.
It's possible to see further declines, but we need the chart to give us a valid time at mode trend signal to short it again, namely a correction before a new sharp decline. It's also possible this happens in a small timeframe and might not be observable in the daily, so I'll be monitoring for entry carefully.

It's clear that USDJPY             has been leading USDCAD             in the uptrend from the 2013 low to date, so I'm fairly certain it'll slide down some more once USDJPY             resumes the decline to 113 or even as low as 102.
I've closed my equity longs for the time being, and will start looking for associated setups.

If interested in coaching and/or trading signals, contact me directly. I'm currently providing a special promotion for the coming week, since I think this and next week will give us probably some of the best trading opportunities of the year.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.
Comment: Oil has reached my uptrend target in the short term. We might get a consolidation or reversal.
Comment: I'm short AUDCAD, but looking to rejoin this and also add USDRUB.
Comment: USDCAD is in a consolidation but oil's forming a nice uptrend continuation pattern. Expect more shorts in this pair soon.
Trade active: Following the analysis, usdjpy lead the way...I'm entering a USDCAD long off this support level.
Comment: Added to the USDCAD longs, I'll close the 2nd entry 100 pips higher more or less.
Comment: This retracement is really serious.
I closed my longs with 2.75% profits, but didn't reshort.
Comment: If we get a retracement we can short again.
Comment: I got the retracement entry and shorted USDCAD again. Aiming for new lows. USDJPY still has room to fall to 113 easily, and potentially 102.
Comment: Will USDCAD follow the lead in USDJPY...I'd like to find out so I'll short it.
Trade active: Shorted again, big downside possible.
Comment: Great progress today, added to shorts.
Now usdjpy is retracing, the relationship between these two pairs is excellent, a very useful pattern.
Comment:
snapshot


Long term target.
Comment: We might have a rebound before resuming the decline.

snapshot
Comment: The FOMC support has finally failed...Downside to 1.3 opens up with high probability.
We also have a new potential time at mode downtrend signal.
snapshot
Comment: As a sidenote, the usdjpy leg up matched the start of a new leg down in usdcad, as illustrated by my analysis of this cyclical pattern. Seems to be a good barometer for this trade.
Comment: The last two legs down and now up have been synchronized in usdjpy and usdcad. This is atypical behavior. I think the bottom might be in for the dollar (at least vs these two currencies)
Comment: Going by this analysis we could expect a retracement in usdcad.

Related Ideas

"Oil has reached my uptrend target in the short term. We might get a consolidation or reversal."

agree :-)
Even though I'm bullish oil you have to allow for a rebound here. Good job!
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I will let it prove itself if I'm going to reopen longs in it...and cad ;)
The nature of the consolidation (or reversal) is the tell-tale sign.

Right now, I'm out of equities longs.

Cheers.
Reply
bracken IvanLabrie
Here is the reason I,m bullish oil.
Because oil still lies within a bullish trend. You don't believe me? Have a look yourself.
Until the lower line is broken the trend per definition is bullish.
snapshot
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Depends on your definition of trend. :)
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bracken IvanLabrie
Right!
Longterm trend. Like the last 35 years :-)
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I don't give the lines anty importance. That's what I mean.
Also, depends on the timeframe you operate.
I can buy and sell oil 100s of times from 1h chart, when a long term trader would have 1 short perhaps.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
Let me rephrase: The methodology one uses, is a personal thing. If proven to give an advantage, by all means use it.
But to others it might not be of relevance.
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moorekapital IvanLabrie
I like this , Ivan. One man's meat is another man's......... ;)
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bracken bracken
Ivan
Here is my take on oil short term. Right at a critical juncture!
snapshot
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Correction fork?

I think we should see a retracement.
If this was a short covering rally, we'll see one more drop, and head towards 22.5 zone.
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bracken IvanLabrie
There are three separate and independent forks in the picture. One brown, one yellow and one magnenta. You might have to look closly to see the brown one.
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bracken bracken
The brown alternative is now out!
It's between the yellow and the magenta alternatives. Only one can win when all said and done
snapshot
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bracken bracken
Well, which alternative do you believe in (if you had to chose right now)?
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Big picture might help :-)
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Thank you Ivan, I follow you and open a position TP 1.3575, SL 1.4020
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IvanLabrie PRO AhmetAlperOzen
Good luck, that SL is quite good.
+1 Reply
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