As you may recall, I presented the Wolfe Waves ("WW") pattern using different examples. In this particular case, we looked at a failed Point-5 reversal, which instead continued off to its Point-5'. In fact, yesterday, I was mentioning that as a matter of experience, whenever I come across a potential WW, I expect a reversal to occur at Point-5', as the market is more likely to absorb nearby stop-losses, right up to that loftier Point-5'.
Here are the recent technical commentaries on this USDCAD as it relates to this WW pattern:
1 - In this example, the interesting aspect is that my predictive analysis and forecasting system had already set a TG-1 = 1.11659 that was sitting HIGHER than Point-5, so the bias was already setting its eyes higher, towards point-5': - tradingview.com/v/el0TAb2z/
2 - In this follow-through analysis, chart shows that TG-1 was surpassed in favor of a reversal at Point-5', as expected off of the dynamic 3-5' Line
For your leisure, review more WW pattern analysis here, where the AUDNZD offered yet another great lesson: - tradingview.com/v/XAenL0Jh/
Overall, this trader's directional bias is bearish, based on past WW lessons, whereas the predictive analysis remains bullish. Based on this discrepancy, net directional bias remains cautiously NEUTRAL.
Thank you for your support and friendly referrals!
Cheers,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
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------------------------------------- Disclaimer: - Remember to remain dubious about every and any thing I say. All comments are subjective perceptions based on unshared, proprietary and common knowledge of fundamental analysis, classic technical analysis, basic and advanced pattern trading, as well as personal research in occult market geometries, predictive analysis and quant-based forecasting, some or none of which is being shared in my trading profiles, so do your due diligence and review the disclaimer below. - Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
Price reached a minor support defined by a parallel 1-3-5 Line. Expect a rallying to the underbelly of the 2-4 Line as a probable reactive scenario, as suggested in this chart:
Otherwise, targets and original forecast remain intact.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
nsawa
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What do you think of a possible Bullish Bat (I mean after break of the 3-5 trendline and this S/R zone) with a D at around 1.1045, do you think it will retest the 3-5 along with the Bat or just go through the D point to the 2-4 (it's along the trend and the 1.1045 seems a good support level especially between 3 and 5 - well except that one break at point 4)
4xForecaster
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@nsawa - With classic patterns, anything is possible.
For instance, I could mention that an alternate bullish bat would fit the line setup, such that its Point-D (defined as 1.131 x XA) would land right on the 2-4 Line.
However, I have distanced myself from patterns, except for a very few ones. Still, I never use patterns in my predictive analysis and forecasting.
In my experience (and this is only one voice talking), patterns have become a hindsight thing, rather than the forecasting tool I need to confirm trends, reversals and targets.
David Alcindor
BrentWatson
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Excellent summary, I'll read about WW. I'm also tracking a Wave 3 correction on the 2H, let me know and I'll post it if interested.
4xForecaster
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@BrentWatson - Feel free to add/post charts with commentary. I do not use waves, except some occasional WW, but I remain curious about any technical information, and other readers might learn and integrate these lessons into their own analytical habits. Thank you - David.
Declines w/o relief rally; Breaks key supports; Nears target:
Cheers,
David Alcindor