USD/CAD: Bank of Canada big catalyst
In this update, I will change my strategy how I read the economical news that it's incoming for tomorrow in the Bank of Canada about interest rate, policy monetary report and Canada Press Conference in that country and also, I will show you fundamental news with key points and technical analysis too.
Fumdamental News:
1) Canadian dollar has scope to make up ground against some of its biggest commodity-related peers if the country’s central bank provides an appropriate shot of hawkishness this week.
2) Canadian Dollar has received some support from higher oil and resource prices in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war. This Wednesday’s Bank of Canada meeting, which is widely expected to deliver a half-point interest rate hike, could well prove a catalyst for fresh moves higher.
3) Bank of America Corp. sees Macklem implementing a “potentially brisk” pace of tightening which would provide “persistent support” to the Canadian dollar in the months ahead
4) Expectations for what the Bank of Canada might choose to do on monetary policy have climbed sharply along with the recent ramp up in rhetoric south of the border at the Federal Reserve.
That 4 key points it's sound bullish for Canadian Dollar.
So, basically lead by fundamental news, U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar find up key resistance here in Daily analysis and we could to make a reversal from the point $1.2620 CAD to $1.2480 CAD.
And also, to take in note in H4 timeframe, we forming a bearish divergence forming a lower high in both (RSI and price action) and that sound me a possible drop in the U.S. Dollar against Canadian Dollar.
Meanwhile, in H2 timeframe to being more enfocous. I use the MACD and I Identify clearly a bearish divergence making a higher lower in MACD indicator and higher high in price action. And that it's another signal that we would to short USD/CAD. Now, as the market it's waiting the big catalyst on Canada currency, I know very well this perspective how this market will move on. I entry in short around $1.2619 CAD and SL to $1.2668 and target to $1.2480 CAD. So guys, you will need to closed up your long position in USD/CAD if you long in this trade, please pay attention and closed up, as this morning I made a bought around $1.2606 CAD, but I will lead by fundamental analysis what they speak us.
I hope that this analysis support you very well.
Fumdamental News:
1) Canadian dollar has scope to make up ground against some of its biggest commodity-related peers if the country’s central bank provides an appropriate shot of hawkishness this week.
2) Canadian Dollar has received some support from higher oil and resource prices in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war. This Wednesday’s Bank of Canada meeting, which is widely expected to deliver a half-point interest rate hike, could well prove a catalyst for fresh moves higher.
3) Bank of America Corp. sees Macklem implementing a “potentially brisk” pace of tightening which would provide “persistent support” to the Canadian dollar in the months ahead
4) Expectations for what the Bank of Canada might choose to do on monetary policy have climbed sharply along with the recent ramp up in rhetoric south of the border at the Federal Reserve.
That 4 key points it's sound bullish for Canadian Dollar.
So, basically lead by fundamental news, U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar find up key resistance here in Daily analysis and we could to make a reversal from the point $1.2620 CAD to $1.2480 CAD.
And also, to take in note in H4 timeframe, we forming a bearish divergence forming a lower high in both (RSI and price action) and that sound me a possible drop in the U.S. Dollar against Canadian Dollar.
Meanwhile, in H2 timeframe to being more enfocous. I use the MACD and I Identify clearly a bearish divergence making a higher lower in MACD indicator and higher high in price action. And that it's another signal that we would to short USD/CAD. Now, as the market it's waiting the big catalyst on Canada currency, I know very well this perspective how this market will move on. I entry in short around $1.2619 CAD and SL to $1.2668 and target to $1.2480 CAD. So guys, you will need to closed up your long position in USD/CAD if you long in this trade, please pay attention and closed up, as this morning I made a bought around $1.2606 CAD, but I will lead by fundamental analysis what they speak us.
I hope that this analysis support you very well.
Trade closed: stop reached:
We loss 40 pips
My fundamental analysis was very good what I had this excpectative that U.S. Dollar drag in front of Canadian Dollar. But I believe that the best price to short was exactly where I put my Stop Loss, where inevitble I loss this trade to entry in the price when USD/CAD was up and to the $1.2660 CAD. But I can to work better for the next analysis. But I was right about that expectative.