USDCHF - Wild Swings Signaling End Of Trend? Or Just A Pause?

We have been watching USDCHF drop from it's high set in Nov., 2015 to now. It wasn't a smooth ride down but rather a very bumpy back and forth type down trend. Makes it pretty difficult to trade. But in the past days, it has been particularly rough to trade as the Swissy just kept swinging back and forth wildly! If you tried to trade it, you know what I mean! Wild enough to drive a blind man crazy! But yesterday, there was a breakout of that wild swinging pattern. What does it mean? Let's take a look....

BTW, I had held off on doing a monthly on USDCHF just exactly for the reason above. It was just swinging so wildly that I did not feel any confidence in making any projections. But with yesterday's "breakout", maybe the picture is somewhat more clear now.

4HR CHART

The subwaves in the downtrend from the wave (X) highs are broken down here. Clearly the wave (1) and wave (2) of (Y) are done. Breaking down the wave (3) shows that USDCHF could've just finished the wave iii of (iii) of the larger wave (3) of (Y). So that means that the wave (iii) of (3) is still not done. At present, USDCHF is in the wave iv of (iii) retrace.

CONCLUSION

It's headed lower. That "breakout" I mentioned in the opening is just a retracement and the main downtrend will resume as soon as it's done. Which maybe soon. I will be looking to sell when there is a setup to go short on this pair for the larger move down.

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